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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

In which month will SpaceX IPO?

Name: In which month will SpaceX IPO?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$331.74K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

In which month will SpaceX IPO?

Vol

$331.74K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $331.74K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $331.74K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?	Poly	68%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in August 2026 (ET)?	Poly	16%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)?	Poly	9%
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?	Poly	6%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)?	Poly	2%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?	Poly	2%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?	Poly	1%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in May 2026 (ET)?	Poly	1%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

68%

Top Probability

$331.74K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occurs. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027". Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun. Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** In which month will SpaceX IPO?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (169 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occurs.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".

Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.

Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occurs.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".

Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this mark"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $241.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $19.2K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 12.55)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in May 2026 (ET)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $61.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $106.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 67.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $17.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in August 2026 (ET)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $9.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $9.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $8.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $10.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $13.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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