Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by...?

Name: Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by...?
End: 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$48.16K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by...?

Vol

$48.16K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $48.16K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $48.16K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by October 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by October 31, 2026?	Poly	23%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

23%

Top Probability

$48.16K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 1, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action b"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $566
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 11.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics