NC-14 House Election Winner
PM $40.7K
1
2
NC-14 House Election Winner
PM $40.7K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Tim Moore (R) at 82%.
Polymarket
- Tim Moore (R)82%
- Lakesha Womack (D)17%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $40.7K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied event asks which party will win the NC-14 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules say the market "will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections," and that "the midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026" [1]. A candidate's party is set by a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation. A candidate without one is assigned to the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with [1].
Resolution depends on "a consensus of credible reporting." If that is ambiguous, the market resolves "based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z, which is later than the election date in the rules. Listed close times and resolution dates are separate facts, so readers should check the rules rather than treat the close time as the result date [1].
Reading the snapshot
The market data was observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T21:21:44.410Z [1]. These are the observation and retrieval times for this record. The prices describe that moment only and are not live quotes.
The event contains two contracts. The Republican contract shows Yes at 0.905 and No at 0.095. The Democratic contract shows Yes at 0.09 and No at 0.91 [1]. Each pair sums to 1.00, so the Yes and No prices in each contract complement each other. The two contracts are separate listings within one event, and their prices are not a probability estimate that has been verified. A difference between prices is not evidence of an arbitrage opportunity, and these figures do not indicate executable prices or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The coverage record reports 2 total markets, 2 included, and no partial sample [1]. This sample includes every saved market for this event, but the sample warning states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The supplied data cannot show whether other outcomes exist, and no conclusions should be drawn about omitted outcomes.
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, and it contains no recent news, trader counts, or historical accuracy data for this market. Any reading of these prices should stay limited to the saved snapshot and the contract wording.
References
- Polymarket: NC-14 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This market is a binary contract on the party of the winner of the NC-14 seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections [1]. Its rules say it will resolve according to that party, and they state that the midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. Background material on the 2026 House elections describes voters electing representatives from all 435 congressional districts across the fifty states, along with five of the six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories [2]. NC-14 is one of those districts. The contract does not turn on the candidate's name alone. Party is determined by a candidate's ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources [1]. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Party is assigned to a party based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at that same point [1]. The rules say the market will resolve based on the election result as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it will resolve solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1]. The saved event record lists an end time of 04:59 UTC on November 4, 2026 [1]. That time is the contract's listed closing time. It is not an announcement of when results will be called, because the rules tie resolution to when the House elections are conclusively called [1]. The saved event contains two markets. One asks whether the Republican Party wins the NC-14 seat, and the other asks whether the Democratic Party wins it. Each market has Yes and No outcomes [1]. All saved markets for this event are included in the sample. The sample is not partial, although that does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome.
Historical Context
Background material on the 2024 House elections states that they were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the 435 representatives of the House, along with six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and inhabited U.S. territories [3]. Those elections were held together with the presidential election and Senate elections as part of the 2024 United States general election, and the winners serve in the 119th United States Congress, with seats apportioned among states based on the 2020 census [3]. The 2026 House elections are described as taking place during President Donald Trump's second nonconsecutive term [2].
Why It Matters
The contract measures which major party wins the NC-14 seat in the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections [1]. Because the House elections cover all 435 districts [2], this contract addresses one seat within that broader set of races. Its rules define the party question in terms of the candidate's ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation, or the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with, at the time the House elections are conclusively called [1]. The result depends on the rules' resolution sources, which are reporting consensus and, when that is ambiguous, official results from the Federal Election Commission [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What party does the contract resolve on?
The contract resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-14 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections [1].
How is a candidate's party decided if they have no ballot-listed affiliation?
A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Party is considered a member of one of those parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus, measured when the House elections are conclusively called [1].
What happens if the result is unclear?
The rules say the market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1].
When does the contract close?
The saved event record lists an end time of 04:59 UTC on November 4, 2026 [1]. This is the listed closing time in the contract data, and the rules tie resolution to when the House elections are conclusively called [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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