Lowest temperature in Karachi on October 21?
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Lowest temperature in Karachi on October 21?
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks which temperature bracket will contain the lowest reading recorded by NOAA at Jinnah International Airport in Karachi on October 21, 2026, in whole degrees Celsius [1]. The primary resolution source is the NOAA time series for the lowest value under the "Temp" column. If that data is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used instead. If neither source has data by that deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z [1]. That is the provider's listed close time, not a confirmed resolution time. The rules also say the market resolves once the first data point for the following date is published, or by the 11:59 PM ET deadline, whichever comes first [1]. Each bracket title uses slightly different wording. The lowest bracket is "21°C or below," the highest is "31°C or higher," and the middle brackets are single values such as "22°C" [1]. These differences matter when comparing prices across brackets.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T06:00:06Z and retrieved at 06:12:08Z [1]. It records a point-in-time view, not a live quote, and it does not show what prices are now. The sample includes all 11 saved markets for this event, so it is not partial [1]. The source notes that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome.
Yes prices in the snapshot are as follows: "21°C or below" at 0.50; 22°C through 28°C at 0.34 each; 29°C at 0.04; 30°C at 0.0055; and "31°C or higher" at 0.0055 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The Yes prices do not sum to 1 in this snapshot, so they should not be read as a complete probability distribution. The snapshot also contains no volume figures that could describe liquidity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price stood where it did at the observation time, and it does not describe trading activity or the number of participants. It contains no information about the actual NOAA readings for October 21, and no resolution outcome has been recorded here. Because only one provider event is supplied, these prices should not be compared with other platforms' contracts on different wording or close times. Differences in price between separate contracts do not by themselves indicate an opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Lowest temperature in Karachi on October 21?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This market asks what the lowest temperature will be in Karachi on October 21, 2026, measured at Jinnah International Airport. The contract is organized as a set of whole-degree Celsius brackets, and it resolves to the bracket that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA for that day [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-21T12:00:00Z, but that is a date in the contract listing, not an announced event, and the observation date had not yet occurred when the evidence was retrieved [1]. The market is a daily minimum temperature contract. It is tied to a specific station and a specific day, so its outcome depends on the readings from that station rather than on a general description of the city's weather. Karachi sits on the Arabian Sea coast, and its climate is described as tropical semi-arid in a moderate form, influenced by monsoons and relatively mild because of the coast [2]. That general background helps explain the setting, but it does not forecast the temperature on the observation date. The market's brackets run in one-degree steps. The sampled markets cover 21°C or below, each whole degree from 22°C through 29°C, 30°C, and 31°C or higher [1]. Each bracket is a separate yes or no contract, so a single day's result settles one bracket as the winning range while the others resolve against it.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single, precisely defined observation: the lowest temperature recorded at one airport station on one day, reported in whole degrees Celsius [1]. Because the rules name the data source, the rounding, the cutoff times, and the treatment of missing or erroneous data, the price of each bracket reflects expectations about that specific resolution process rather than a broad weather view [1]. The market also gives a practical reading of how the contract works. Revisions to recorded temperatures are considered until the first data point for the following date is published, after which later changes are not considered [1]. If the resolution data is clearly erroneous, the market may remain open for up to seven calendar days in ET for a correction [1]. Prices shown in the application are snapshots from the observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Which temperature does the market use?
It uses the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on October 21, 2026, from NOAA's data for Jinnah International Airport, measured in whole degrees Celsius [1].
What happens if NOAA data is not available in time?
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used [1].
What happens if no data is available at all?
If there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
When does the market resolve?
It resolves once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first [1].
Can a published temperature be corrected?
If the resolution source publishes data that is clearly erroneous because of technical or operational error, or unauthorized interference, the market may remain open for up to seven calendar days in ET while a correction is awaited. A corrected value published in that period is eligible for resolution [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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