$11.30K
1
7
$11.30K
1
7
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Jan '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. To toggle between Fahre
Prediction markets are currently pricing in a highly uncertain forecast for Dallas's high temperature on January 17, 2026. The leading contract on Polymarket, asking if the temperature will be between 46-47°F, is trading at 41%. This probability indicates the market sees this narrow band as the most likely single outcome, but far from a confident prediction. The remaining liquidity is thinly spread across six other 1-degree bins, from 43-44°F up to 52-53°F, with no other contract above 20%. The total market volume of only $3,000 reflects low confidence and high uncertainty in any specific outcome.
The primary factor is the inherent difficulty of precise long-range temperature forecasting. While general seasonal expectations for mid-January in Dallas suggest average highs in the mid-50s, predicting a specific 1-degree range two days out introduces significant volatility. The current market distribution suggests traders are weighing model data pointing toward a cooler-than-average day, with the probability mass centered in the mid-to-upper 40s. The concentration around 46-47°F likely reflects a consensus from short-term forecast models available to traders, though the thin volume means this consensus is weak.
The odds are highly sensitive to the next 48 hours of updated forecast data. The most immediate catalyst will be the National Weather Service forecast updates for Dallas Love Field, especially the detailed hourly predictions published on January 16. A shift of just 2-3 degrees in the projected high would cause dramatic repricing across all contracts. Key risks to the current implied forecast include unexpected cloud cover, which could suppress highs further, or a faster-moving air mass that could bring slightly warmer conditions. The market will remain volatile until official observations are recorded on resolution day.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature that will be recorded at Dallas Love Field on January 15, 2026. The market resolves based on the highest temperature in degrees Fahrenheit reported by Wunderground's historical data for the Dallas Love Field Station (KDAL). This specific meteorological observation is part of a broader interest in seasonal forecasting and climate prediction, where accurate temperature forecasts have significant implications for energy markets, agriculture, and urban planning. The date of January 15 falls within the heart of winter for North Texas, a period historically characterized by high variability, where temperatures can range from unseasonably warm spells to severe cold outbreaks influenced by Arctic air masses. Recent trends toward warmer winters and increased climate volatility have heightened interest in such specific forecasts, as stakeholders from utility companies to event planners seek more granular data. The market taps into both professional meteorological analysis and public curiosity about weather extremes, serving as a quantified consensus on a discrete climate variable.
Dallas's winter climate has undergone notable shifts and exhibited significant volatility over recent decades. Historically, the average high temperature for January 15, based on the 1991-2020 climate normals recorded at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, is approximately 57 degrees Fahrenheit. However, the actual recorded highs on this date show a wide range. For instance, on January 15, 2023, the high at Dallas Love Field was a mild 66°F, while on January 15, 2018, it reached only 39°F. The most extreme recent event was the record-breaking winter storm of February 2021, which, while not on this exact date, underscored the region's vulnerability to sudden, severe cold. That event saw temperatures at Love Field plummet to 0°F on February 16, 2021, and resulted in widespread power outages. The historical record for the entire month of January at Dallas Love Field shows an all-time high of 88°F set on January 16, 1933, and an all-time low of -3°F on January 18, 1930. This historical variability is driven by competing air masses: warm, dry air from the southwest and cold, Arctic air that can plunge southward via the Great Plains, a pattern influenced by the position of the jet stream and teleconnections like the Arctic Oscillation.
The specific high temperature on a winter day in a major city like Dallas has tangible economic and societal impacts. For the energy sector, a colder-than-expected day spikes demand for natural gas and electricity for heating, straining the ERCOT grid and influencing spot market prices. Conversely, an unusually warm day reduces heating demand but may increase air conditioning use in commercial buildings, creating an unexpected load pattern. For agriculture in North Texas, a hard freeze can damage winter wheat and other crops, while a warm spell can affect dormancy cycles. On a social level, extreme cold poses public health risks, particularly for vulnerable populations, and can lead to school and business closures. Accurate forecasting allows city services and nonprofits to activate warming centers. Furthermore, this specific prediction market contributes to the broader field of climate intelligence by creating a financial incentive for aggregating dispersed weather knowledge, potentially leading to more accurate consensus forecasts than any single model. The outcome serves as a single data point in the ongoing study of climate variability and urban heat island effects in a growing metropolitan area.
As of late 2024, seasonal outlooks for the winter of 2025-2026 have not yet been issued by major forecasting centers like NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. These outlooks, which typically become available in the fall prior to the winter season, will provide the first broad probabilistic guidance on whether the southern United States, including Texas, is expected to experience a warmer, cooler, or near-normal winter. Current climate research is focused on the potential state of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for that period, as El Niño conditions tend to correlate with cooler, wetter winters for the southern U.S., while La Niña correlates with warmer, drier conditions. The legacy of the 2021 winter storm continues to drive investments in grid weatherization and heightened scrutiny of winter forecasts by state regulators and energy market participants.
Based on the 1991-2020 climate normals for Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, the average high temperature for January 15 is 57 degrees Fahrenheit. However, actual daily highs can vary widely from this average, from the 30s to the 70s, depending on specific weather patterns.
The official Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) station for Dallas Love Field is located on the airport grounds, designated by the FAA identifier KDAL. Its measurements are taken according to National Weather Service standards and are used for aviation and public weather reporting.
The most significant driver of cold outbreaks in Dallas is the southward intrusion of Arctic air masses, often associated with a negative Arctic Oscillation. Warm spells can be caused by a dominant southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico or a strong, zonal Pacific jet stream.
Forecast skill decreases significantly beyond 10 days. While seasonal outlooks can indicate general temperature trends (above/below average), predicting the exact high temperature for a specific day like January 15, 2026, this far in advance is highly uncertain and relies on probabilistic modeling of large-scale climate patterns.
The market specifies Wunderground as a consistent, publicly accessible, and commercial source for finalized daily data. The NWS also provides this data, but the market creator has designated a single, unambiguous source to ensure clear and consistent resolution for all participants.
Climate data shows a trend toward warmer winters in North Texas over recent decades. The 1991-2020 climate normals are warmer than the previous 1981-2010 normals, and the frequency of extreme cold events has decreased slightly, though severe outbreaks like in 2021 still occur.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 60% |
| Poly | 36% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 1% |
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