$37.52K
1
11
$37.52K
1
11
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Copper (HG) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of February 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Copper (HG) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME’s designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, and December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active m
Traders on prediction markets currently believe copper prices are more likely than not to fall significantly in the very near future. The leading market asks if the metal will hit a low of $5.40 per pound by February 28th. With a 71% "Yes" probability, the collective bet is that there is roughly a 2 in 3 chance copper will drop to that level within the next six trading days. This shows a strong consensus for a sharp, short-term decline from current prices around $5.70.
Two main factors are driving this pessimistic outlook. First, recent economic data from China, the world's largest consumer of copper, has shown continued weakness in its property and manufacturing sectors. Since copper is essential for construction and industrial production, slowing demand from China often leads to lower prices.
Second, the U.S. dollar has remained strong. Because copper is priced in dollars globally, a stronger dollar makes copper more expensive for buyers using other currencies, which can suppress international demand. These combined pressures are outweighing the longer-term bullish narrative around copper's role in green energy technologies like electric vehicles and power grids.
The prediction window is very short, closing on February 28th. Price movements will be closely tied to daily trading sentiment and any surprise news. Key influences will include fresh comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve on interest rates, which affect the dollar's strength, and any new economic indicators from China. A significant, unexpected announcement regarding economic stimulus in China could potentially shift prices upward and challenge this forecast.
Markets for short-term commodity price movements like this are volatile and can be swayed by sudden news. While prediction markets often efficiently aggregate trader knowledge about probabilities, their record on pinpointing exact price levels on specific dates is mixed. This forecast reflects real-time sentiment, but the short timeframe means it is more susceptible to daily market swings than a longer-term prediction would be. It is a snapshot of current fear about near-term demand, not a definitive prophecy.
The Polymarket contract "Will Copper (HG) hit $5.40/lb by end of February?" is trading at 71 cents, implying a 71% probability. This price signals a strong market consensus that copper will reach or exceed that threshold before February 28, 2026. With the front-month contract currently near $5.15/lb, the market is pricing in a significant near-term rally of approximately 5%. However, the relatively thin $38,000 total volume across all strike prices indicates limited institutional capital is committed to this view, suggesting the high probability may be vulnerable to sharp moves on new information.
Two primary forces support the bullish outlook. First, sustained physical supply deficits are tightening the market. Major disruptions at mines like Cobre Panama, combined with slower-than-expected output growth from new projects in Chile and Peru, have kept visible inventories near historic lows. The International Copper Study Group forecasts a 2026 deficit exceeding 400,000 tonnes. Second, demand expectations are anchored by the global energy transition. Copper is a fundamental material for electrical infrastructure, electric vehicles, and renewable power generation. Government policies mandating grid upgrades and EV adoption, particularly in the U.S. and China, create a structural demand floor that did not exist a decade ago.
The 71% probability faces immediate tests from macroeconomic data and Chinese demand signals. The U.S. CPI and PPI reports released next week will directly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Higher-than-expected inflation could strengthen the dollar and pressure all dollar-priced commodities, including copper. More specific to copper, import and inventory data from China, due around February 20, will be critical. China accounts for over half of global copper consumption. Any indication of weaker-than-anticipated demand from its property or manufacturing sectors would likely cause a rapid repricing. A failure to breach technical resistance around $5.25/lb in the coming week could see the "Yes" probability fall toward 50%.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on whether the CME Group's Copper (HG) futures contract will reach or exceed a specific price threshold by the end of February 2026. Copper futures, traded under the ticker HG, are standardized contracts for the delivery of 25,000 pounds of copper. The market resolves based on the official CME settlement price for the 'Active Month,' which is the nearest designated delivery month (March, May, July, September, or December) that is not the current spot month. The outcome is binary: 'Yes' if the price meets or surpasses the target on any trading day before the February 2026 deadline, otherwise 'No.' Interest in this market stems from copper's status as a critical industrial metal and economic bellwether. Its price is influenced by global manufacturing demand, supply disruptions at major mines, inventory levels at exchanges like the London Metal Exchange (LME), and macroeconomic trends. Recent years have seen increased volatility due to the energy transition, as copper is essential for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and power grids. Investors, miners, and manufacturers use these futures for hedging and speculation, making price predictions a focal point for market sentiment.
Copper has been traded for centuries, but modern futures contracts formalized price discovery and risk management. The COMEX (now part of CME Group) launched its copper futures contract in the 1980s. A significant historical precedent was the Sumitomo copper scandal of the mid-1990s, where a single trader attempted to corner the market, causing extreme volatility and leading to stricter position limits and regulatory oversight. The 2000s saw a sustained bull market, often called the 'commodities supercycle,' driven by rapid industrialization in China. Copper prices peaked near $4.60 per pound in 2011. The subsequent decade was marked by periods of surplus and deficit, with prices bottoming around $1.95 per pound in early 2016 amid concerns about a Chinese economic slowdown. The COVID-19 pandemic initially crashed prices in March 2020, but a swift recovery fueled by stimulus spending and supply chain issues pushed copper to a new all-time high of $4.88 per pound in May 2021. This history of cyclical booms and busts, tied to global economic health and supply shocks, provides the backdrop for any price prediction extending to 2026.
The price of copper is a reliable leading indicator for global economic health, earning it the nickname 'Dr. Copper.' Sustained high prices can signal strong industrial demand and economic expansion, but they also increase costs for manufacturers of everything from electronics to automobiles, potentially contributing to inflationary pressures. For commodity-dependent nations like Chile, Peru, and Zambia, copper revenue directly funds government budgets and social programs. Conversely, a price collapse can trigger fiscal crises and social unrest in these mining regions. Beyond traditional economics, copper's role in the energy transition gives its price political and environmental significance. High prices can accelerate investment in new mining projects but also incentivize recycling and technological innovation to use less copper. The outcome of this prediction market reflects collective wisdom on the balance between these competing forces of green demand, traditional cyclicality, and geopolitical supply risks over a multi-year horizon.
As of early 2025, copper prices are trading in a historically elevated range, supported by concerns over medium-term supply deficits but tempered by near-term macroeconomic uncertainty. Recent developments include operational setbacks at major mines in Panama and Peru, which have tightened physical market conditions. Simultaneously, economic data from China, particularly regarding its property sector and manufacturing PMI, continues to create volatility. Market participants are closely monitoring the pace of interest rate cuts by major central banks, as lower rates could stimulate industrial activity and weaken the dollar, providing a dual tailwind for copper prices.
It is a standardized agreement traded on the CME Group exchange to buy or sell 25,000 pounds of copper at a predetermined price on a future date. The 'HG' is the ticker symbol, and it is a primary benchmark for copper pricing in the Americas.
The CME settlement price is not simply the last trade. It is calculated during a specific closing period, considering trade volume and price, to establish a single representative price for the day. This official price is used for marking positions to market and for resolving contracts like this prediction market.
The Active Month is the nearest delivery month (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the current 'spot' month, which is the month immediately facing delivery. It is typically the most liquid contract. As one contract expires, the next in the cycle becomes the new Active Month.
The primary drivers are Chinese demand, global mine supply and disruptions, inventory levels at the LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange, the strength of the U.S. dollar, and global economic growth forecasts. Expectations for green energy adoption have become a major long-term factor.
Both are futures contracts for copper, but they differ in contract size (CME: 25,000 lbs; LME: 25 metric tons), delivery locations, and trading conventions. The LME price is often considered the global benchmark, while CME is dominant in the Americas. Prices on the two exchanges are highly correlated but not identical.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
11 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 71% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 50% |
| Poly | 48% |
| Poly | 47% |
| Poly | 43% |
| Poly | 21% |
| Poly | 21% |
| Poly | 14% |
| Poly | 4% |
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