$202.64K
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4
$202.64K
1
4
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between February 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the Wes
Prediction markets currently give the highest probability, about 29%, to the outcome that Israel will strike exactly four different countries in 2026. This means traders see it as the single most likely number, but still an unlikely bet overall. The combined odds for striking three or four countries are nearly 50%, suggesting traders are almost evenly split between a more contained scenario and a wider one. The market assigns less than a 10% chance to Israel striking just one country, indicating a strong consensus that cross-border military action will extend beyond a single theater.
The current odds reflect Israel's ongoing conflicts and regional tensions. First, strikes against Iranian-linked targets in Syria have been a consistent feature for years and are widely expected to continue, accounting for at least one country. Second, the war against Hamas has involved frequent exchanges of fire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, making a second country highly probable. The third and fourth potential countries are more speculative but point to escalation. This could involve direct strikes inside Iran if tensions spike, or more sustained action against Houthi targets in Yemen, which has occurred previously. The low probability for a single strike suggests traders believe the current multi-front pressure is unlikely to fully de-escalate within the year.
The timeline for this prediction is the entire year, so watch for events that could widen or narrow the conflict. A major trigger would be a significant attack on Israel from a new actor, potentially drawing a direct retaliation. Progress or collapse in ceasefire and hostage negotiations in Gaza could directly impact the intensity of the Lebanon front. Another key signal is any major confrontation between Israel and Iran, such as a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities or a severe Iranian retaliation from its territory. The outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November 2026 could also shift the market, as perceptions of American support and diplomatic pressure may change.
Prediction markets have a mixed record on specific, contingent military events. They are often good at aggregating intelligence about ongoing patterns, like the high likelihood of strikes in Syria. However, they can struggle with predicting sudden escalations or de-escalations driven by unpredictable political decisions or secret diplomacy. The moderate amount of money wagered here suggests informed speculation but not an overwhelming consensus. These odds are a snapshot of current expectations, and they will likely shift rapidly in response to major news from the region.
Prediction markets assign the highest probability, 29%, to the outcome that Israel will strike exactly four different countries in 2026. This is a low-confidence forecast, indicating the market sees no single scenario as dominant. The combined probabilities for striking three, four, or five countries are significantly higher than for striking zero, one, or two, suggesting traders expect continued regional military action. With $880,000 in volume, the market has moderate liquidity, reflecting serious speculative interest in this geopolitical question.
The pricing reflects Israel's established doctrine of preemptive strikes against Iranian-linked targets across the Middle East. In recent years, Israel has conducted acknowledged or attributed strikes in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Gaza. The market's focus on three to five countries assumes this pattern persists, with Syria and Lebanon as near-certain targets. The 29% probability on four countries likely accounts for strikes in those two nations, plus two additional jurisdictions, such as Iraqi soil or strikes against Hamas or Hezbollah operatives in a third country like Turkey or Jordan. The odds are shaped by the understanding that Israel views these operations as essential for countering weapons transfers and terror threats.
A major shift in the Iran-Israel proxy conflict would dramatically reset prices. An escalation into direct war between Israel and Iran or Hezbollah could rapidly expand the theater of operations, pushing outcomes toward five or more countries. Conversely, a successful, durable ceasefire in Gaza combined with a de-escalation agreement with Hezbollah would make lower outcomes more likely. The U.S. presidential election in November 2024 is a key variable, as a change in administration could alter U.S. diplomatic pressure or military support, influencing Israel's operational calculus. Monitoring Israeli cabinet statements and cross-border incident frequency in late 2025 will provide the clearest signals for 2026.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market asks how many distinct countries Israel will conduct military strikes against during the 2026 calendar year. A strike is defined as Israel initiating a drone, missile, or air attack on another country's sovereign soil. The resolution rules specify that attacks on embassies or consulates count against the host country, not the nation the diplomatic mission represents. Strikes within territory Israel controlled as of December 31, 2025, including the West Bank and Gaza Strip, are excluded from the count. The topic measures the potential geographic expansion of Israel's military engagements beyond its immediate neighbors. Interest in this market stems from Israel's established policy of conducting preemptive and retaliatory strikes against perceived threats across the Middle East, particularly targeting Iranian assets and allied militant groups. Recent years have seen these operations extend into Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and occasionally further afield. Analysts monitor whether this pattern will hold, intensify, or contract based on regional diplomacy, conflict escalation, and changes in Israeli leadership. The market outcome serves as a quantitative proxy for assessing regional instability and the scope of shadow conflicts.
Israel's history of striking targets in other countries dates to the 1960s and 1970s, with operations like the 1976 Entebbe raid in Uganda. The modern precedent for sustained cross-border air campaigns began with the 'War Between the Wars' (MABAM) strategy in the early 2010s. This doctrine aimed to disrupt Iranian weapons transfers to Hezbollah via Syria, preventing the group from obtaining advanced precision-guided missiles. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Israel conducted hundreds of airstrikes in Syria between 2017 and 2023, often targeting airports, weapons depots, and Iranian-linked facilities near Damascus and Aleppo. In August 2019, Israel confirmed it had struck Iranian operatives in Iraq, marking an expansion of its acknowledged operational theater. Strikes in Lebanon have been less frequent but significant, such as the 2023 drone attack on a Hamas office in Beirut's southern suburbs. These actions establish a clear pattern: Israel is willing to use force in multiple sovereign states to counter threats it attributes to Iran and its allies, setting a baseline for potential 2026 activity.
The number of countries Israel strikes has direct implications for regional security and global stability. Each strike carries the risk of miscalculation and escalation, potentially drawing other actors like the United States or Russia into a broader conflict. For the countries targeted, these operations violate sovereignty and can destabilize local governments, particularly in fragile states like Lebanon or Syria. Economically, heightened military activity affects global oil markets and shipping routes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Red Sea, influencing energy prices and insurance costs. For civilians in strike zones, these operations mean casualties, property destruction, and prolonged insecurity. The metric also serves as a barometer for the effectiveness of international diplomacy. A high count suggests a failure of diplomatic channels to contain tensions, while a low count could indicate successful de-escalation or a shift in Israeli strategy. Investors and policymakers watch this data point closely as a leading indicator of Middle East volatility.
As of late 2024, Israel remains engaged in a multi-front conflict following the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023. While major military operations are concentrated in Gaza, clashes with Hezbollah along the Lebanese border occur daily. Israel has continued airstrikes in Syria, targeting Iranian-linked sites. In April 2024, an Israeli strike hit Iran's embassy compound in Damascus, killing senior Iranian commanders and prompting a direct but limited Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel. This exchange marked a dangerous escalation and increased the potential for wider conflict. Regional tensions are exceptionally high, with all major actors on high alert. The trajectory of the Gaza war and negotiations for a ceasefire will significantly influence whether conflict spreads geographically in 2025, setting the conditions for the 2026 period covered by this market.
A strike is defined as Israel initiating a drone, missile, or air attack on the sovereign soil of another country. Attacks on embassies count against the host country. Strikes within Israeli-controlled territory, the West Bank, or Gaza are excluded.
Based on historical patterns, Syria is the most likely target due to ongoing Israeli operations against Iranian assets there. Lebanon is also a high-probability candidate if conflict with Hezbollah escalates. Iraq, Yemen, and Sudan are less frequent but possible targets.
Israel maintains a policy of ambiguity for most strikes, especially in Syria. It rarely claims responsibility publicly, though senior officials sometimes confirm operations to journalists. The market resolves based on credible reporting from multiple sources, not official Israeli confirmation.
The market specifically resolves based on strikes on a country's 'soil.' Attacks on vessels in international waters or in another country's territorial waters would not count toward the total number of countries struck.
A formal declaration of war and sustained combat would still involve strikes on Lebanese soil. For the purpose of this market, Lebanon would count as one country struck, regardless of the intensity or duration of the conflict within its borders during 2026.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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