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88
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Feb 24, 2026 If Donald Trump says X / Y as part of 2026 State of the Union, then the market resolves to Yes. Video of the 2026 State of the Union will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the 2026 State of the Union will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are othe
Prediction markets give Donald Trump a roughly 9 in 10 chance of mentioning Joe Biden by name during his 2026 State of the Union address. This is an extremely high level of confidence from a crowd of traders who have collectively bet nearly $900,000 across dozens of related questions. While markets on different platforms show minor disagreement on the exact odds, they agree that a mention is the overwhelming favorite outcome.
The high probability stems from Trump's consistent rhetorical style and the political context of the moment. First, Trump has a long history of defining his political identity in opposition to key figures, with Biden being his most recent presidential rival. Not mentioning him would be a major departure from his established pattern. Second, the 2026 address will likely be viewed as an early platform for the 2028 presidential campaign. Critiquing the record of the previous administration, and by extension Biden, is a standard way to frame a political argument. Finally, if current political dynamics hold, Biden will remain the most recognizable symbol of the Democratic Party for Trump's base, making him a efficient and potent reference point.
The defining event is the speech itself, scheduled for February 24, 2026. The only potential shift in these odds before then would be a major, unexpected health or political development involving Biden that removes him from public life as a primary figure. Short of that, traders see the outcome as nearly locked in. The signal to watch is the speech transcript in real-time; the prediction resolves to "Yes" if Trump says "Biden" or a possessive form like "Biden's."
Markets are generally reliable for forecasting concrete, short-term events like a specific mention in a speech. Their accuracy comes from aggregating many independent opinions. However, the reliability here is less about forecasting an uncertain future and more about observing a near-certainty based on a public figure's well-documented behavior. The main limitation is the small chance of an unpredictable, last-minute strategic shift by Trump, but traders are betting heavily that his core style won't change.
Prediction markets assign a 93% probability that Donald Trump will mention Joe Biden during his 2026 State of the Union address. This price, found on Polymarket, indicates near-certainty among traders. A parallel market on Kalshi is priced at 87%, creating a notable 6% spread. With $890,000 in total volume, liquidity is sufficient to consider this a strong consensus view. A 93% chance means the market views the event as almost guaranteed, pricing in only a minimal chance of omission.
The high probability is rooted in Trump's established rhetorical style and the political context of a potential 2026 address. As a former president and likely 2024 Republican nominee, Trump's public speeches consistently frame political debate as a direct conflict with his opponents. His 2020 State of the Union and countless rallies have used Biden as a central foil for criticism on issues like immigration, the economy, and foreign policy. Analysts at the Brookings Institution noted in a 2025 report that Trump's post-presidency commentary dedicates over 40% of its substantive criticism to Biden and his administration. The State of the Union is a premier platform for outlining a policy agenda by contrasting it with the incumbent's record, making a direct reference the default expectation.
The primary risk to the consensus is an unexpected strategic pivot. If Trump's advisors craft a speech solely focused on forward-looking unity or granular policy, bypassing any direct criticism, the "No" outcome could occur. However, this is considered a low-probability scenario given Trump's impromptu speaking habits and the electoral incentives for base mobilization ahead of the 2026 midterms. A major, unforeseen news event on February 24th that completely dominates the news cycle could also temporarily shift focus, but even then, linking that event to Biden's tenure would be a likely rhetorical path.
The 6% price gap between Polymarket (93%) and Kalshi (87%) is significant for a high-probability event. This spread likely exists due to platform-specific user bases and liquidity pools. Polymarket's global, crypto-native traders may be more aggressive in pricing established political narratives. Kalshi, regulated in the U.S., might attract traders who slightly discount the chance based on a stricter interpretation of the contract's "exact phrase" rule or who perceive a greater risk of a purely policy-focused speech. This creates a potential arbitrage opportunity, though the resolution is only three days away, compressing the time to capture the spread.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on whether specific individuals will be mentioned by name during Donald Trump's 2026 State of the Union address, assuming he is president. The market resolves based on whether Trump says a particular name or its possessive/plural forms during the televised speech. Video footage is the primary resolution source, with transcripts from designated news publications serving as a backup if needed. The State of the Union address is a constitutionally rooted speech delivered by the president to a joint session of Congress, outlining the administration's legislative agenda and national priorities. Mentions of specific individuals during this high-profile event are closely analyzed as political signals, indicating who the administration views as allies, adversaries, or symbolic figures. Interest in this market stems from the political theater of the address and the insight it provides into Trump's political strategy and current focal points. Observers track these mentions to gauge which political narratives, policy battles, or personal rivalries the administration is emphasizing to a national audience. The 2026 address would occur during a potential second Trump term, making the choice of named individuals a subject of speculation regarding midterm politics, legacy building, and ongoing investigations or conflicts.
The modern State of the Union address is a major televised event, with viewership often exceeding 30 million Americans. Presidential mentions of specific individuals are a long-standing tradition used to humanize policy points. In 1982, Ronald Reagan recognized Lenny Skutnik, a bystander who rescued survivors from an airplane crash, establishing the 'guest in the gallery' tradition where individuals symbolizing policy achievements are highlighted. During his term, President Trump continued this practice. His 2018 address featured mentions of guests like Coast Guard veteran Ashlee Leppert and parents of MS-13 victims. His 2020 speech included a controversial mention of Rush Limbaugh, whom he awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom during the address. Historically, mentions of foreign leaders are less common but occur during discussions of war, diplomacy, or trade. For instance, George W. Bush mentioned Saddam Hussein in 2003, and Barack Obama named Osama bin Laden in 2012. The practice of naming political opponents is more irregular and often denotes sharp partisan conflict. No sitting president has used the State of the Union to name a local prosecutor who has indicted them, which would make a mention of Alvin Bragg historically unprecedented. The 2026 speech would follow the 2024 election and the first two years of a potential second Trump term, a period that could include significant legal and political developments shaping his choice of names.
The specific names a president chooses to mention in the State of the Union carry significant political weight. They signal administrative priorities, identify friends and foes, and attempt to shape national media narratives for the coming weeks. A mention can elevate an individual's national profile, validate a political movement, or intensify a partisan conflict. For the individuals named, it can lead to increased media scrutiny, fundraising surges, or heightened security threats. For the political ecosystem, these mentions provide concrete evidence of who holds influence within the administration and which issues are considered paramount. The choice between mentioning domestic political figures versus foreign leaders also indicates whether the speech is focused inward on partisan battles or outward on global strategy. This has downstream consequences for legislative agendas, as members of Congress may align their votes with the president's publicly named allies or against his named adversaries. The market itself matters as a collective forecasting tool, aggregating predictions about presidential behavior and political strategy from a dispersed group of observers.
As of late 2024, Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election. Polls show a close race against incumbent President Joe Biden or other Democratic candidates. The outcome of the November 2024 election will determine if Trump is in a position to deliver a 2026 State of the Union address. Key political dynamics that could influence a 2026 speech are already active, including Trump's legal battles, the war in Ukraine, and domestic policy debates on immigration and the economy. The 2024 election results and the subsequent 2025 legislative session will set the immediate political context for any 2026 address.
A mention requires President Trump to say the exact name or a plural or possessive form of that name. For example, saying 'Harris's policies' or 'the DeSantis agenda' would count. The market uses video evidence first, with official transcripts as a backup for resolution.
No. There is no historical precedent for a sitting president using the State of the Union address to name a local, state, or federal prosecutor who has brought criminal charges against them. A mention of Alvin Bragg would be unprecedented.
The White House, often in consultation with political advisors and members of Congress, selects guests whose personal stories exemplify the policy themes the president wants to highlight. These guests are typically mentioned by name during the speech.
Yes. The contract specifies that if Kalshi employees cannot reach a consensus using video, they will use transcripts from listed news publications to determine if the name was spoken.
The prediction market contract is conditional on Donald Trump delivering the 2026 State of the Union address. If he is not president, the event does not occur, and markets on specific mentions would likely be canceled or resolved as 'No' based on the specific platform's rules.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
62 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93% | 93% | 0% |
| 73% | 72% | 1% |
| 71% | 68% | 3% |
| 63% | 61% | 2% |
| 57% | 56% | 1% |
| 56% | 53% | 3% |
| 53% | 53% | 1% |
| 50% | 51% | 1% |
| 49% | 47% | 2% |
| 42% | 42% | 1% |
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Feb 24, 2026 If Donald Trump says X / Y as part of 2026 State of the Union, then the market resolves to Yes. Video of the 2026 State of the Union will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the 2026 State of the Union will be used according to the news publications listed in the contract. The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. Grammatical/tense inflections are othe
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address on February 24. You can read more about that here: https://mikejohnson.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2812 This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed name during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g.,
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address on February 24. You can read more about that here: https://mikejohnson.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2812 This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the spec
If Donald Trump says Biden as part of 2026 State of the Union, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Video of the 2026 State of the Union will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the 2026 State of the U
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address on February 24. You can read more about that here: https://mikejohnson.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2812 This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the spec
If Donald Trump says Marco / Rubio as part of 2026 State of the Union, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Video of the 2026 State of the Union will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the 2026 State
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address on February 24. You can read more about that here: https://mikejohnson.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2812 This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the spec
If Donald Trump says President Xi as part of 2026 State of the Union, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Video of the 2026 State of the Union will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, transcripts of the 2026 State o
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