Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

How many people will Trump pardon in Oct 2026?

Total Volume

$2.52K

Events

Markets

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How many people will Trump pardon in Oct 2026?

Vol

$2.52K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.52K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.52K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will exactly 0 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will exactly 0 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	77%
Will exactly 1 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	12%
Will between 25 and 99 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will between 3 and 9 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will exactly 2 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will between 100 and 249 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will between 10 and 24 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will above 249 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

77%

Top Probability

$2.52K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Oct 2026 If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between X and Y persons in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many people will Trump pardon in Oct 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Oct 2026

If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between X and Y persons in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 25 and 99 persons in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will between 25 and 99 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will between 3 and 9 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $134
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will exactly 2 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will between 100 and 249 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will between 10 and 24 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will above 249 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will exactly 1 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $43
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will exactly 0 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

How many people will Trump pardon in Oct 2026?

Volume$2.52K

Markets8

8 of 8

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KALSHI

Will exactly 0 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.5¢No 22.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will exactly 0 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to exactly 0 persons in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will exactly 1 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will exactly 1 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to exactly 1 persons in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will between 25 and 99 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will between 25 and 99 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 25 and 99 persons in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will between 3 and 9 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will between 3 and 9 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 3 and 9 persons in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will exactly 2 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will exactly 2 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to exactly 2 persons in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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14¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/hpoE8T" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="How many people will Trump pardon in Oct 2026?"></iframe>

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How many people will Trump pardon in Oct 2026?

How many people will Trump pardon in Oct 2026?

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Will exactly 0 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

How many people will Trump pardon in Oct 2026?

Markets (8)

Will exactly 0 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

Will exactly 0 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

Will exactly 1 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

Will exactly 1 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

Will between 25 and 99 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

Will between 25 and 99 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

Will between 3 and 9 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

Will between 3 and 9 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

Will exactly 2 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

Will exactly 2 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

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Will exactly 0 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many people will Trump pardon in Oct 2026?

Will exactly 0 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

Will exactly 0 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

Will exactly 1 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

Will exactly 1 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

Will between 25 and 99 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

Will between 25 and 99 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

Will between 3 and 9 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

Will between 3 and 9 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

Will exactly 2 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

Will exactly 2 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?

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