Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

Name: Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
End: 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$40.28K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

Vol

$40.28K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $40.28K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $40.28K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Poly	49%
Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Poly	20%
Will there be fewer than 20 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Poly	14%
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Poly	14%
Will there be 35 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

49%

Top Probability

$40.28K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 1, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $40.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $102.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.39)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be fewer than 20 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $7.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $6.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $14.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $7.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be 35 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics