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$726.25K
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the count
Prediction markets show traders are nearly certain the U.S. will confirm at least 1,000 measles cases by the end of February 2026. The current price implies a 98% probability, meaning traders see it as almost guaranteed. This is a specific forecast about public health data roughly two years from now.
Two main trends are driving this high-confidence prediction. First, measles cases in the U.S. have been rising significantly. In 2024, the CDC reported over 300 cases, which was the highest annual total in decades. Several localized outbreaks occurred, often linked to international travel and communities with lower vaccination rates.
Second, the historical pattern suggests this upward trend is likely to continue or accelerate. Measles is one of the most contagious human viruses. It can spread quickly among unvaccinated groups. Childhood vaccination rates for the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine have dipped slightly in recent years, leaving more people susceptible. Traders are betting that these conditions make a major surge to 1,000 cases within the next two years very probable.
The market resolves based on the CDC's official 2026 case count on February 28, 2026. Before then, watch for two types of signals. Official CDC updates on 2025 case totals, typically released monthly, will show if the trend is accelerating. Also, news of any large local outbreaks in the fall or winter of 2025 would strongly indicate the 1,000-case threshold will be met.
Markets are generally good at aggregating public information about trends, but they can be swayed by recent news. For health metrics like this, the crowd's accuracy often depends on the quality of available data. The CDC's reporting is reliable, but unforeseen events like a successful public health campaign could change the trajectory. The extreme 98% probability suggests traders see little room for such a turnaround given current momentum.
Prediction markets are pricing in a near-certainty of a major measles outbreak. On Polymarket, the contract "Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?" is trading at 98 cents, implying a 98% probability. This price indicates traders see crossing the 1,000-case threshold as virtually guaranteed with only one week until resolution. A separate market for "at least 500 cases" has already resolved to "Yes," confirming the outbreak's significant scale early in the year.
The market's extreme confidence is driven by real-time public health data. The CDC's measles case counter for 2026 already shows over 1,800 confirmed cases as of February 21, 2025, far exceeding the 1,000-case target with over a year remaining in the measurement period. This surge represents the largest U.S. outbreak in decades, eclipsing the 1,274 cases recorded for all of 2019. The primary driver is a decline in childhood vaccination coverage. CDC data from 2023 shows kindergarten MMR vaccination rates have fallen to 93.1%, below the 95% threshold needed for herd immunity, creating pockets of susceptibility in communities nationwide.
With the case count already reported at 1,800+, the outcome is functionally locked. The only scenario that could theoretically change the odds would be an unprecedented data revision by the CDC, which is highly improbable. The CDC's case counter is the official resolution source, and its published totals are considered definitive. Traders are now focused on higher-case thresholds within the same market suite, such as whether cases will exceed 2,500 or 3,000 by the February 28, 2026, cutoff. The trajectory suggests these higher targets will also be met easily, given the current rate of spread and the typical seasonality of measles outbreaks extending through spring.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on whether the United States will record a specified number of confirmed measles cases by February 28, 2026. Measles, also known as rubeola, is a highly contagious viral disease that was declared eliminated in the U.S. in 2000. The market resolves based on the official 'Total Cases' count for 2026 published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). This count includes only laboratory-confirmed cases meeting the CDC's clinical case definition. The topic intersects public health, epidemiology, and social behavior, as measles outbreaks in recent years have challenged the nation's elimination status. Interest stems from tracking the resurgence of a vaccine-preventable disease, with cases often linked to international travel and pockets of low vaccination coverage in specific communities. The outcome serves as a real-time indicator of both the virus's circulation and the effectiveness of public health interventions during the winter respiratory virus season. Observers monitor this data to gauge population immunity levels and anticipate potential larger outbreaks.
Measles was endemic in the United States before the introduction of a vaccine in 1963, causing an estimated 3 to 4 million cases annually. A major vaccination campaign led to the declaration of measles elimination in 2000, defined as the absence of continuous disease transmission for 12 months or more. This status was maintained for over a decade. The modern era of measles challenges began around 2014, with a notable outbreak linked to Disneyland in California that involved 147 cases. A much larger outbreak occurred in 2019, with 1,274 confirmed cases across 31 states, the highest annual total since 1992. That outbreak was primarily driven by unvaccinated travelers returning from countries with active transmission, followed by spread in communities with low vaccination rates. These events demonstrated how quickly measles can re-establish transmission chains in under-vaccinated populations. The historical pattern shows most annual cases are reported in the first quarter, coinciding with winter travel and the virus's high transmissibility in indoor settings, making the February 28 cutoff date particularly relevant for predicting annual totals.
The number of measles cases is a direct measure of population immunity and public health system performance. Each case requires extensive and costly containment efforts, including contact tracing, quarantine orders, and emergency vaccination clinics, straining local health department budgets. Economically, outbreaks disrupt schools and businesses, and a single case investigation can cost a health department between $2,735 and $154,000 according to a 2020 Journal of Infectious Diseases study. Politically, case counts fuel debates over vaccination mandates, school entry requirements, and exemptions. High case numbers can trigger legislative actions at the state level to tighten exemption policies. Socially, outbreaks create community divisions, expose healthcare inequities, and pose severe risks to infants too young for vaccination and immunocompromised individuals who cannot receive the vaccine. Sustained transmission risks the official U.S. elimination status, which would be a significant setback for global health and could lead to renewed endemic spread.
As of late 2024, measles activity in the U.S. remains above pre-pandemic levels. Several localized outbreaks occurred in 2024, including incidents in Florida, Illinois, and Pennsylvania. Public health officials have expressed concern over declining childhood vaccination rates in some areas, which they attribute to pandemic-related healthcare disruptions and growing vaccine hesitancy. The CDC continues to emphasize that over 90% of U.S. measles cases are associated with international travel. Health departments are preparing for typical winter season increases. The specific threshold number for the 2026 prediction market will determine the likelihood of a 'Yes' resolution based on these ongoing trends.
The CDC confirms a case through laboratory testing (positive IgM antibody, PCR, or viral isolation) combined with the clinical case definition, which includes fever, cough, runny nose, red eyes, and a characteristic rash. Cases are reported by state health departments and verified by the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System.
The incubation period averages 10 to 12 days from exposure to the first symptoms (like fever), with the rash typically appearing about 14 days after exposure. An infected person can spread the virus from 4 days before the rash appears to 4 days after.
States with lower MMR vaccination coverage or higher rates of nonmedical exemptions, such as Idaho, Ohio, and Georgia, are considered higher risk. Outbreaks often occur in specific communities within states rather than being evenly distributed statewide.
Two doses of the MMR vaccine are about 97% effective at preventing measles. Breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals are rare and usually milder, with less frequent complications. Vaccinated individuals who get measles are also less contagious.
The vast majority of U.S. measles outbreaks since elimination are traceable to an imported case, typically an unvaccinated U.S. resident or visitor who traveled to a country where measles is common. The virus then spreads in communities with insufficient vaccination coverage.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 98% |
| Poly | 76% |
| Poly | 38% |
| Poly | 15% |
| Poly | 3% |
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| Poly | 2% |
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