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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Missouri | Kalshi | 88% |
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Missouri | Kalshi | 11% |
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In 2028 If a representative X party is inaugurated as the governor of Missouri pursuant to the 2028 election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2028 gubernatorial election. This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2028 gubernatorial election.
Prediction markets are pricing in an overwhelming likelihood that the Democratic Party will retain the Massachusetts governorship in the 2026 election. On Kalshi, the contract "Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Massachusetts" is trading at 95 cents, implying a 95% probability. This price suggests the market views a Democratic victory as nearly certain, with only a minimal 5% chance assigned to an upset by a Republican or independent candidate. The market has high confidence but is characterized by thin liquidity, with only $12,000 in total volume across two related markets.
Two structural political factors are the primary drivers of these steep odds. First, Massachusetts is one of the most consistently Democratic states in the nation. A Republican has not won a gubernatorial race there since Charlie Baker's re-election in 2018, and Baker himself was a notable moderate anomaly in a deep-blue state. The current governor, Maura Healey, is a Democrat. Second, the state's electoral history shows a profound partisan lean. Democrats hold every statewide elected office and command supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. This creates a formidable political machine and donor base for any Democratic nominee, making the primary the de facto decisive contest.
The 95% probability leaves little room for movement, but the odds could shift if a significant, credible Republican candidate emerges with a moderate profile and substantial financial backing, reminiscent of the Charlie Baker model. A severe scandal or political crisis involving the Democratic incumbent administration or the eventual 2026 nominee could also open the door for a competitive race. Furthermore, a national political wave in 2026, though currently unforeseen, could impact even safe seats. The market will likely remain stable until candidate declarations and early polling begin in 2025, at which point the viability of any challenger will be tested.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The 2028 Missouri gubernatorial election will determine who serves as the state's chief executive from January 2029 through January 2033. This prediction market specifically tracks whether a candidate from a designated political party, referred to as 'X party' in the market description, will win the election and be inaugurated as governor. The market resolves to 'Yes' if a representative of that party is sworn in following the November 2028 election, with an early close condition triggered by the first gubernatorial inauguration in January 2029. Missouri's governorship is a powerful statewide office with significant influence over policy, budgeting, and appointments. The election occurs in a politically competitive state that has trended Republican in recent federal elections but has a history of electing Democratic governors, making it a key battleground for state-level control. Interest in this market stems from its function as a collective forecasting tool for a high-stakes political outcome with implications for state policy, national party momentum, and the 2030 redistricting cycle. Analysts and political observers will monitor candidate recruitment, fundraising, and polling in the lead-up to the election to gauge the parties' strengths in a post-2024 political environment.
Missouri's gubernatorial elections have followed a distinct pattern in recent decades, often diverging from its federal voting trends. While the state has voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election since 2000, it has elected Democratic governors for 16 of the last 24 years. The last Democratic governor was Eric Greitens, who was elected in 2016 but resigned in 2018 amid scandal, leading to the succession of Republican Mike Parson. Parson was elected to a full term in 2020, defeating Democrat Nicole Galloway by a margin of approximately 57% to 41%. This continued a cycle where Republicans hold the office for two terms, followed by a Democratic victory, a pattern seen with Democrats Mel Carnahan (1993-2000), Bob Holden (2001-2005), and Jay Nixon (2009-2017). The 2028 election will test whether this oscillation continues or if Missouri solidifies as a Republican state at all levels. Historically, the governorship has been won with pluralities in multi-candidate fields, as there is no runoff provision in Missouri general elections. The office has significant formal powers, including a line-item veto and appointment authority, which have been used to shape policy on issues like Medicaid expansion, which voters approved via ballot initiative in 2020 but faced implementation battles with the Republican-led legislature.
The outcome of the 2028 Missouri gubernatorial election will have substantial policy consequences for the state's 6.2 million residents. The governor sets the legislative agenda, proposes the state budget, and has veto power over bills passed by the General Assembly. Key issues at stake include the future of Medicaid funding, K-12 and higher education policy, infrastructure investment, tax rates, and regulations on businesses and agriculture. The governor also appoints heads of state agencies, judges to fill vacancies, and members of various boards and commissions, shaping the implementation of state law for years beyond their term. Politically, the election is a bellwether for party strength in a Midwestern swing state. A victory for the 'X party' would provide momentum heading into the 2030 midterm elections and influence the redistricting process for Missouri's eight U.S. House seats following the 2030 census. The governor plays a role in approving new congressional and state legislative maps, affecting partisan balance for a decade. For national parties, winning the Missouri governorship demonstrates organizational strength and messaging appeal in a region critical to presidential elections.
As of late 2024, the 2028 Missouri gubernatorial race is in its earliest speculative phase. The field is completely open with no declared candidates, as political attention remains focused on the 2024 presidential and congressional elections. Potential candidates from both parties are likely conducting informal polling, consulting with donors, and gauging support for a future run. The Missouri Democratic Party is rebuilding after successive statewide losses and will be seeking a candidate who can appeal to both its base and independent voters. Republicans, enjoying control of all statewide offices and supermajorities in the legislature, will likely see a competitive primary to succeed the term-limited Governor Parson. Key factors that will shape the race include the national political environment in 2028, the state of the economy, and the outcomes of ballot measures and legislative battles in the intervening years.
The election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028, concurrent with the U.S. presidential election. The winner will be inaugurated in January 2029 for a four-year term.
Candidates must be at least 30 years old, a U.S. citizen for at least 15 years, and a Missouri resident for at least 10 years prior to the election. They must also be a qualified voter of the state.
Key issues include education funding, healthcare access and Medicaid expansion, infrastructure and transportation, tax policy, agricultural regulations, and social policies. Economic development and crime are also perennial concerns for voters.
Missouri has a history of split-ticket voting, often electing Democratic governors while voting Republican in presidential elections. However, Republicans have won the last two gubernatorial elections in 2016 and 2020, suggesting a possible realignment.
The governor of Missouri earns an annual salary of $133,821 as of 2024. This amount is set by the Missouri Citizens' Commission on Compensation for Elected Officials and can be adjusted periodically.
A governor cannot serve more than two consecutive four-year terms. However, after sitting out one term, a former governor is eligible to run again for additional terms, as there is no lifetime limit.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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