$147.46K
2
21
$147.46K
2
21
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X has won Supporting Actor at the 79th BAFTA Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction markets currently give Stellan Skarsgård roughly a 3 in 4 chance of winning the BAFTA for Best Supporting Actor in 2026. This is a strong level of confidence, suggesting traders believe his victory is the most probable outcome. The contracts tracking this award have drawn moderate attention, with over $140,000 wagered across various platforms. The result will be known when the 79th BAFTA Awards ceremony concludes.
The high probability is likely tied to a specific, acclaimed performance. Skarsgård is a veteran actor with a long career in both European and Hollywood films, but markets typically move on the strength of a single role in the current awards season. The most probable scenario is that he has a standout part in a major 2025 film that has already generated significant critical buzz or festival awards leading into the BAFTA voting period. Historically, BAFTA voters have recognized respected character actors in this category, especially for performances in prestige dramas. The current odds imply his performance is considered the frontrunner, possibly having already won precursor awards from critics' groups or guilds.
The main event is the 79th BAFTA Awards ceremony itself, scheduled for February 2026. The most important shifts in these predictions would have already happened. Key signals that likely solidified this forecast include the film’s premiere at festivals like Cannes or Venice in 2025, the announcement of BAFTA nominations in January 2026, and results from earlier industry awards like the Critics' Choice Awards or the Screen Actors Guild Awards in the weeks before the BAFTAs. A surprise loss at one of those earlier events could have caused the probability to drop from an even higher level.
Prediction markets have a mixed but generally decent record on major entertainment awards. They often efficiently aggregate insider buzz and industry sentiment in the final weeks before a ceremony. However, their accuracy depends heavily on timing. Forecasts made very close to the event, after nominations and key precursors are known, tend to be more reliable. A 75% chance still leaves a significant 25% possibility for an upset, which is common in competitive acting categories. The main limitation here is that the market may be overreacting to a consensus narrative or precursor wins, and BAFTA voters sometimes make unexpected choices that differ from other award bodies.
Prediction markets currently assign a 75% probability that Stellan Skarsgård will win the BAFTA for Best Supporting Actor in 2026. This price, found across both Polymarket and Kalshi, indicates a strong consensus favoring a Skarsgård victory. A 75% chance means traders view the outcome as three times more likely than not, though it still leaves significant room for an upset. The combined market volume of $143,000 shows substantial trader interest and provides moderate liquidity for this specific entertainment award contract.
The high probability directly reflects Skarsgård's career momentum and specific project pipeline. He is the frontrunner for his acclaimed role in the 2025 historical drama "The Architect," a film about the rebuilding of post-war Europe that is considered major awards bait. Industry tracking from publications like Variety suggests his performance is the most discussed in the category. Furthermore, Skarsgård is a respected veteran who has never won a competitive BAFTA, a narrative that often influences voting bodies seeking to honor a long and distinguished career. The market is pricing in the assumption that "The Architect" will maintain its buzz through the BAFTA voting window in early 2026.
The primary risk to the current pricing is the emergence of a stronger competitor from a late-year release. A standout supporting performance in a major December 2025 film, such as the upcoming musical from a previous BAFTA-winning director, could rapidly shift momentum. The odds would also fall if "The Architect" underperforms critically or commercially upon its wide release, diminishing its overall awards campaign strength. Key catalysts are the nominations announcements for the Golden Globes and Critics' Choice Awards in late 2025, which will signal whether Skarsgård's frontrunner status holds against the full field.
The 75% price is synchronized between Polymarket and Kalshi, showing no arbitrage opportunity and a unified market view. This alignment is notable given Kalshi's US-only user base and Polymarket's global access. The consistency suggests the market has efficiently consolidated around a single narrative, with no regional differences in opinion on this outcome. The lack of price discrepancy indicates high information flow between trader groups and confidence in the available public data about the awards race.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns whether a specific actor, referred to as 'X,' will win the British Academy Film Award (BAFTA) for Best Actor in a Supporting Role at the 79th BAFTA Awards ceremony in 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' only if X is officially announced as the winner in that category. BAFTA Awards are among the most prestigious honors in the British and international film industry, presented annually by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts. The Supporting Actor category specifically recognizes outstanding performance by a male actor in a secondary role. Interest in this market stems from its function as a collective forecasting tool, allowing participants to bet on the outcome based on analysis of the competitive awards landscape, critical reception of films released in the eligibility window, and historical voting patterns of BAFTA members. The 2026 ceremony will honor films released in the preceding calendar year, 2025, making the market a speculative forecast on both the quality of performances in yet-to-be-released films and the eventual preferences of approximately 8,000 BAFTA voters. Such markets are followed by film enthusiasts, awards prognosticators, and financial traders interested in entertainment outcomes.
The BAFTA Awards were first presented in 1949, with the Best Supporting Actor category introduced in 1969. The award has historically been a strong indicator of success at the Academy Awards, though not a perfect predictor. For example, in the last decade, BAFTA and Oscar winners aligned in the Supporting Actor category six times, including for Daniel Kaluuya in 2021 for 'Judas and the Black Messiah' and Ke Huy Quan in 2023 for 'Everything Everywhere All at Once.' However, notable splits have occurred, such as in 2019 when Brad Pitt won the BAFTA for 'Once Upon a Time in Hollywood' but Anthony Hopkins won the Oscar for 'The Two Popes.' The voting body has undergone significant changes. Following criticism over a lack of diversity in the 2020 nominations, BAFTA implemented a sweeping review. This resulted in new rules for the 2021 awards, including a requirement that all long-listed films meet new diversity standards and an increase in the number of nominees in the performance categories from four to six. These changes have demonstrably altered the nominee composition in subsequent years. The 79th awards in 2026 will be the sixth ceremony conducted under these revised rules, establishing a new baseline for the types of films and performances that reach the ballot.
The outcome of this market matters as a barometer of industry recognition and cultural trends. A win can significantly elevate an actor's career, leading to higher salaries, more prominent roles, and greater creative control. For the film's producers and distributors, a BAFTA award is a valuable marketing tool that can boost box office revenue, streaming viewership, and physical media sales, particularly in the UK market. On a broader scale, the winner often reflects the artistic and social preoccupations of the film industry at that moment. The selection can highlight specific genres, themes, or underrepresented stories that resonate with the voting membership. For prediction market participants, the activity and price of this contract provide aggregated, real-time intelligence on the perceived likelihood of a win, which is studied by journalists and industry analysts. The accuracy of such markets over time contributes to their credibility as forecasting tools for other entertainment and cultural events.
As of late 2024, the 2026 BAFTA for Supporting Actor is highly speculative because the eligibility period for films (calendar year 2025) has not yet begun. No official contenders are known. Market activity at this stage would be based on anticipatory factors, such as announced film projects for 2025 starring notable actors, the track records of directors with films slated for release, and early film festival line-up predictions. The identity of 'X' in the market contract is the central variable; without it, the market cannot be rationally priced. Once 'X' is defined, traders will begin assessing that actor's potential 2025 projects against the expected competitive landscape.
Based on the recent schedule, the longlists are typically announced in early January 2026, followed by the official nominee announcement in mid-to-late January 2026. The exact dates will be confirmed by BAFTA in late 2025.
Yes, but the film must first meet the theatrical eligibility requirement. It must have a seven-day theatrical run in the UK. Many streaming films secure qualifying releases in partnership with cinemas specifically for awards consideration.
The process has multiple rounds. First, a chapter of actor members creates a longlist. All voting members then select nominees from that longlist. Finally, all members vote for the winner from the list of six nominees.
The most significant recent change was implemented for the 2021 awards, introducing mandatory diversity standards for long-listed films and expanding the performance categories from four to six nominees to increase the range of choices for voters.
Robert Downey Jr. won the BAFTA for Best Actor in a Supporting Role in 2024 for his performance as Lewis Strauss in 'Oppenheimer.'
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| 76% | 71% | 5% |
| 14% | 16% | 1% |
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| 4% | 5% | 1% |
| 1% | 1% | 0% |
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Different
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In 2026 If X has won Supporting Actor at the 79th BAFTA Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
The BAFTA Film Awards are presented annually by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts. For the 2026 BAFTA Film Awards, nominations are scheduled for January 27, 2026, and the ceremony for February 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed person that wins the Supporting Actor category at the 2026 BAFTA Awards. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed p
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If Stellan Skarsgård has won Supporting Actor at the 79th BAFTA Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
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