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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports
Sacred Heart Pioneers vs. Merrimack College Warriors
Total Volume
$0.00
Events
1
Markets
1
Sacred Heart Pioneers vs. Merrimack College Warriors
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $0.00
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
Sacred Heart Pioneers vs. Merrimack College Warriors
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 26% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
26%
Top Probability
$0.00
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This event is for the CBB game between Sacred Heart Pioneers and Merrimack College Warriors on February 1 at 1:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets currently give the Fairfield Stags a strong 78% chance to win their upcoming college basketball game against the Sacred Heart Pioneers. This means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 4 in 5 chance Fairfield will be victorious. This is a clear, confident forecast in a head-to-head sports matchup.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
Two main factors explain the lopsided odds. First, team performance this season provides a stark contrast. Fairfield holds a strong 16-9 overall record and is competing near the top of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC). Sacred Heart, playing in the Northeast Conference (NEC), has struggled to a 14-12 record. Second, recent results likely solidify this view. Fairfield has won 7 of its last 10 games, showing good form, while Sacred Heart has lost 4 of its last 5. The game is also at Fairfield’s home court, which typically offers a small but real advantage.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The key event is the game itself, scheduled for Tuesday, February 20, at 7:00 PM ET. All predictions will resolve based on the official result at the final buzzer. The only other factor that could change the market is an official postponement of the game, which would delay the outcome. A full cancellation would result in a split decision.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
For regular-season college basketball games, prediction markets are generally reliable but not perfect. They efficiently combine public sentiment with statistical models, often making them more accurate than simple win-loss records or expert picks alone. However, their main limitation is that any single game can have surprising outcomes due to player injuries, shooting streaks, or other unpredictable events. A 78% probability still leaves room for a Sacred Heart upset, which happens in sports more often than people might think.
Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets on Polymarket are pricing in a clear favorite for this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference matchup. The market for Fairfield Stags to win is trading at approximately 80 cents, implying an 80% probability of victory. This price suggests the market views a Fairfield win as the most likely outcome, but still assigns a meaningful 20% chance to an upset by the Sacred Heart Pioneers. The opposing "Sacred Heart to win" share trades around 20 cents, directly reflecting this implied probability.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The heavy favoritism for Fairfield is rooted in season-long performance and a significant talent gap. Fairfield entered this contest with a 16-9 overall record and a strong 10-5 mark in MAAC play, positioning them near the top of the conference standings. Sacred Heart, competing in its first MAAC season after moving from the NEC, held a 14-12 record but a sub-.500 7-8 conference record. Fairfield's offense, ranked among the top 100 nationally in adjusted efficiency by KenPom, faced a Sacred Heart defense that struggled consistently against high-level competition. Historical context also matters. In their first meeting as conference foes on January 14, Fairfield secured a decisive 82-69 road victory at Sacred Heart, providing a recent data point that strongly informs the market's current assessment.
What Could Change These Odds
For a market with resolution imminent, the odds are effectively locked based on pre-game analysis. However, in the final hours before tip-off, the only factor that could shift the remaining trading price would be a confirmed, impactful absence in either starting lineup, such as a key player being ruled out due to injury or illness. Absent such late-breaking news, the market has already incorporated the known variables: Fairfield's superior record, their earlier head-to-head win, and Sacred Heart's defensive vulnerabilities. The 80% probability indicates traders see a path for Sacred Heart, likely requiring an exceptional shooting performance or a poor offensive night from Fairfield, but consider it a low-probability event.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.