
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 28?
PM $0
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11
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 28?

PM $0
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 25°C at 44%.
Polymarket
- 25°C44%
- 24°C42.5%
- 28°C27.5%
- 20°C27%
- 27°C24.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 28 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions published after the Hong Kong Observatory's initial publication of data for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. That initial publication is the revisions cutoff. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T06:00:06.440Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks which temperature bracket will contain the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 28 October 2026, in degrees Celsius [1]. The resolution source is the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" value in the Observatory's Daily Extract once it is finalized [1]. Values are read to one decimal place, and revisions published after the initial publication are excluded [1]. If no data exists by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the observation date, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T12:00:00.000Z [1]. This is the listed close, and the rules state that resolution occurs once data is published or by the seventh-day deadline, whichever comes first [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-26T06:00:06.440Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-26T08:28:23.787Z [1]. These prices describe that earlier snapshot and do not show current conditions. The sample includes all 11 brackets from one Polymarket event, with no partial sample flag [1]. Bracket wording differs: two brackets are open-ended ("19°C or below" and "29°C or higher"), while the others name a single degree [1]. The highest Yes price is 0.445 for 24°C, and the lowest is 0.23 for 29°C or higher [1]. Several brackets share a Yes price of 0.35 [1].
The Yes prices across these brackets sum to about 3.72. Because only one bracket can contain the measured minimum, these figures cannot be read as a coherent probability distribution. They are also snapshot prices, not executable quotes. No volume is shown in this evidence, so nothing can be said about depth.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, and it includes no news, trader counts, or forecasting track record. The sample warning states that the saved markets do not establish that every real-world outcome is listed [1]. Only one platform and one event are included, so no cross-platform comparison is supported. The evidence also does not show what the observed minimum will be.
References
- Polymarket: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 28?. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T06:00:06.440Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This Polymarket event asks what the lowest temperature recorded in Hong Kong will be on October 28, 2026. The contract resolves to the temperature range that contains the Hong Kong Observatory's lowest recorded temperature for that date, measured in degrees Celsius [1]. Each market in the event is a separate range, such as a single whole-degree value or an open-ended range at either extreme, and the market for the matching range settles on that outcome [1]. The resolution source is the "Absolute Daily Min" figure for the specified date in the Hong Kong Observatory's "Daily Extract" [1]. The rules say this figure is used once the information is finalized in that extract [1]. Temperatures are measured to one decimal place, so a reading such as 9.1 degrees Celsius is the level of precision used when settling a market [1]. The rules set two timing conditions. A market resolves once data for the date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the observation date, whichever comes first [1]. If no data for the observation date is available by that later deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. The listed end time for the event is 2026-10-28T12:00:00.000Z [1]. This is a date stated in the contract rules and does not, by itself, confirm when the Observatory will publish the figure. The rules also address revisions. The Observatory's initial publication for the period is the revisions cutoff, and later revisions are not considered for resolution [1]. The main exception concerns a clearly erroneous print caused by technical or operational error or by unauthorized interference. In that case the market may remain open for up to seven calendar days (ET) from the original release so the Observatory can publish a correction, and a corrected value published within that window can be used [1]. If no correction appears, Polymarket may issue a Clarification to decide whether the original value can be used or whether other action is needed [1]. The price shown for each range is a snapshot from the provider's data at the time it was observed, not an executable quote. The saved event data was observed at 2026-10-26T06:00:06.440Z and retrieved at 2026-10-26T08:28:23.788Z [1]. At the time of that snapshot the event was listed as active [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single observable weather figure: the lowest temperature the Hong Kong Observatory records for October 28, 2026, expressed in whole and tenth-degree Celsius precision [1]. Because the outcomes are temperature ranges, the event is structured so that exactly one range is expected to contain the final figure [1]. Its rules fix the data source, the precision, the publication timing, and the treatment of revisions, so the settlement depends on the first published Observatory figure unless a clearly erroneous print is corrected [1]. Prices shown for each range reflect the provider's snapshot at the observation time and are not verified probabilities or guaranteed trading levels.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What temperature does this contract measure?
It measures the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on October 28, 2026, in degrees Celsius, using the Absolute Daily Min figure from its Daily Extract [1].
What happens if the data is not published in time?
If there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after that date, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
Are later revisions to the temperature data used?
No. The Observatory's initial publication is the revisions cutoff, and later revisions are not considered. The exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print, which may be used even if published after the cutoff [1].
Does the price of a range equal its probability?
No. The prices are snapshots from the provider's data at the observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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