Name: Odds of Khamenei out by February over__ in January?
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

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Odds of Khamenei out by February over__ in January? | PredictPedia

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Odds of Khamenei out by February over 30% in January?

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Market	Platform	Price
Odds of Khamenei out by February over 30% in January?	Poly	1%
Odds of Khamenei out by February over 50% in January?	Poly	1%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Odds of Khamenei out by February over__ in January?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-february-28) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period ending by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

If the underlying market re

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-february-28) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period endi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $358.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $34.4K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 10.42)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Odds of Khamenei out by February over 50% in January?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $84.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Odds of Khamenei out by February over 30% in January?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $274.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Odds of Khamenei out by February over 30% in January?

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Events (1)

Odds of Khamenei out by February over__ in January?

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Odds of Khamenei out by February over 30% in January?

Odds of Khamenei out by February over 30% in January?

Odds of Khamenei out by February over 50% in January?

Odds of Khamenei out by February over 50% in January?

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Odds of Khamenei out by February over 30% in January?

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Odds of Khamenei out by February over__ in January?

Odds of Khamenei out by February over 30% in January?

Odds of Khamenei out by February over 30% in January?

Odds of Khamenei out by February over 50% in January?

Odds of Khamenei out by February over 50% in January?

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