Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets currently assign an 88% probability that Keir Starmer will say "Reform" during Prime Minister's Questions on January 21st. This price, trading on Kalshi, indicates an overwhelming consensus among traders that the event is highly likely to occur. With the market priced at 88 cents on the dollar, it reflects a near-certain expectation, though not a complete guarantee, that the Labour leader will reference the Reform UK party in his remarks.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

Two primary factors are compressing the odds toward a "Yes" resolution. First, the political context is dominant. As Prime Minister, Keir Starmer faces Leader of the Opposition Nigel Farage, who leads the Reform UK party. PMQs is a central arena for political attack, and directly naming or criticizing the main opposition party is a standard tactic. Avoiding the name "Reform" in this heated, high-profile exchange would be highly irregular and politically disadvantageous.

Second, historical precedent strongly supports this outcome. Analysis of recent PMQs sessions shows that sitting Prime Ministers consistently name-check the principal opposition party, especially when its leader is the direct interlocutor. Given that Reform UK is the official opposition and Farage is a uniquely salient figure, Starmer is expected to use the party's name to anchor his criticisms on policy and accountability.

What Could Change These Odds

The remaining 12% uncertainty represents a narrow path for the "No" outcome. The most plausible scenario shifting the odds would be if Starmer employs a sustained strategy of referring only to "the Leader of the Opposition" or "Nigel Farage" without explicitly using the party label "Reform." This could be a deliberate rhetorical choice to personalize the conflict or to frame Farage as an entity separate from his party's platform. However, given the institutional nature of PMQs and the incentive to formally identify the opposing political entity, such a strategy is considered a low-probability deviation from standard practice. The market's high confidence suggests traders see this as a routine element of parliamentary combat rather than a variable event.