Will Trump be impeached?
$4.18M
2
9
Will Trump be impeached?
$4.18M
2
9
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
About This Event
Before 2028 If the President of the United States has been impeached before X 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire following the occurrence of the event. The President must hold the office when an impeachment resolution passes against him or her . This market will close and expire following the occurrence of the event.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The two platforms use related but different rules. Kalshi's rules say that if the President "has been impeached before X 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes," and that the President "must hold the office when an impeachment resolution passes against him or her" [1]. Polymarket's rules say the market resolves Yes if "the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and the specified date" [2]. Polymarket also states that "Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to 'Yes'" [2].
Each platform lists separate contracts with different deadlines. The Kalshi and Polymarket markets therefore do not ask identical questions, and their prices should be compared with that in mind.
Reading the snapshot
The saved data was observed at 2026-10-13T03:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-13T05:08:16Z. These prices describe that snapshot only. They are not live quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities.
On Kalshi, the Yes prices in the saved sample rise with later deadlines: 0.032 for the January 1, 2027 contract, 0.105 for February 1, 2027, 0.295 for March 1, 2027, 0.385 for July 1, 2027, 0.545 for October 1, 2027, and 0.675 for the January 1, 2028 contract [1]. On Polymarket, the saved Yes prices are 0.023 for the contract ending December 31, 2026, 0.465 for June 30, 2027, and 0.68 for December 31, 2027 [2].
Kalshi's January 1, 2027 contract (0.032 Yes) and Polymarket's December 31, 2026 contract (0.023 Yes) have different listed end times and wording, so their difference does not indicate an arbitrage opportunity. The platforms' prices should not be averaged, because the contracts are not the same outcome.
The saved sample includes all six Kalshi markets and all three Polymarket markets for these events. Those counts describe the saved records, not every possible real-world outcome. Volume is not included in this analysis and does not measure liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices changed or whether the snapshot still reflects current conditions. It also does not provide recent news, historical forecasting accuracy, or any announced schedule beyond the contract deadlines listed. The Kalshi event lists an early close condition tied to the occurrence of the event [1]. The Kalshi listed end time for the event is "not supplied" [1], and the Polymarket event lists an end time of 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [2]. Readers should check each contract's current status and rules directly before relying on any comparison.
References
- Kalshi: Will Trump be impeached?. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z.
- Polymarket: Will Trump be impeached by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 13, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia contract asks whether Donald Trump will be impeached within a specified window. The saved provider events come from two platforms. Kalshi's event rules say the market resolves to Yes if the President has been impeached before the cutoff, and that the President must hold the office when an impeachment resolution passes against him or her [1]. Polymarket's rules say the market resolves to Yes if the US House of Representatives, "by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump," does so between July 24, 2025, and the specified date [2]. Both platforms list a cutoff date for each contract, and the saved markets use several different cutoffs. The contract is about the House impeachment step. Polymarket states that "Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to 'Yes'" [2]. The contract therefore does not depend on whether the Senate convicts or whether anyone is removed from office. Each individual market is a separate contract with its own end date, so a contract with an earlier cutoff can resolve No while a later one is still open. Kalshi lists its markets with cutoffs that include January 1, 2027, October 1, 2027, and January 1, 2028, among others [1]. Polymarket lists cutoffs that include December 31, 2026, June 30, 2027, and December 31, 2027 [2]. These dates are contract rules, not announced events. The price figures in this article are snapshots from the observation time shown in the dated status note. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of impeachment. Trading volume is not included in the evidence, so nothing here describes liquidity or the number of traders.
Historical Context
Trump was impeached twice before the current contracts. On December 18, 2019, the House of Representatives adopted two articles of impeachment, abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, but he was not removed from office. On February 5, 2020, the Senate voted to acquit him on both articles [4]. On January 13, 2021, one week before his term expired, the House adopted one article of impeachment for incitement of insurrection. On February 13, 2021, the Senate voted to acquit him on that article [3]. These are historical events described in Wikipedia articles. The supplied evidence does not describe any impeachment step after 2021, so this article does not describe a present-day update.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a specific procedural event: whether the House of Representatives approves articles of impeachment before a set date. Polymarket's rule makes the House vote the trigger and makes trial, conviction, and removal irrelevant to a Yes resolution [2]. Kalshi's rule also turns on an impeachment resolution passing while the President holds office [1]. Because the two platforms differ in wording and cutoff dates, a comparison between them has to account for those rule differences before any price comparison is meaningful. Different contracts with different rules and different prices do not, by themselves, establish an arbitrage opportunity.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-13 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a Senate conviction determine whether a market resolves Yes?
Under the Polymarket rule, no. The market resolves Yes after a House vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment, and the rule states that neither trial nor conviction by the Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary [2]. The Kalshi rule says the market resolves Yes if the President has been impeached before the cutoff, and that the President must hold the office when an impeachment resolution passes [1].
What does the Polymarket start date of July 24, 2025 mean?
It is the start of the window in the Polymarket rule. The market resolves Yes only if the House approves or passes articles of impeachment between that date and the specified end date [2]. The source does not explain why that date was chosen.
Have the earlier impeachments led to removal from office?
No. The First impeachment article reports that Trump was impeached in December 2019 but was not removed from office, and the Senate acquitted him in February 2020 [4]. The Second impeachment article reports that the Senate voted to acquit him in February 2021 [3].
Are the listed prices the probability of impeachment?
The evidence does not support treating them as verified probabilities. The prices are snapshots from the observed time, and they are not executable quotes [1][2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Saved price pairs
1
Largest saved gap: 1.2 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
