Snapshot observed 2026-11-03T09:00:06.018Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The main contract in this sample asks who wins the game between Alabama and Vanderbilt. It resolves to "Alabama" if Alabama wins and to "Vanderbilt" if Vanderbilt wins, and overtime is included if played [1]. A tie resolves 50-50 [1]. If the game is canceled, does not start by Monday, November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned without an official result by then, it also resolves 50-50 [1]. That deadline is a contract rule, not an announced game date. The rules state that the game was originally scheduled for Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 12:45 PM ET, as of creation of the first market related to the event, and the listed end time is 2026-11-14T17:45:00.000Z [1].

The other contracts are first-half and second-half over/under lines, plus a full-game over/under 35.5 line, all with the same listed end time [1]. Their wording differs from the win market, so their prices do not measure the same outcome.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-11-03T09:00:06.018Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-11-03T11:09:20.090Z [1]. These values describe that observation and are not live prices. They are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

In the win market, Alabama is priced at 0.84 and Vanderbilt at 0.16 [1]. These are two outcomes within one market. The 1H and 2H lines from 21.5 through 33.5 each show Over at 0.51 and Under at 0.49, and the full-game 35.5 line shows Over at 0.505 and Under at 0.495 [1]. Volume is not a measure of liquidity or the number of traders, and the evidence does not say how many traders hold any position.

The sample is partial. The saved event contains 170 markets, and 12 are included [1]. Markets were selected by highest finite Yes price, then volume. The 158 omitted markets are not shown, so the evidence supports no conclusion about their prices. The 12 should not be treated as the full field or compared with markets from other events or providers.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do. It contains no recent news about either team, no historical forecasting accuracy data, and no official result. Resolution depends on the outcome under the stated rules, which the evidence does not report. Prices that differ across contracts are not an arbitrage opportunity by themselves, because the wording and listed close times differ.

References

1. Polymarket: Alabama vs. Vanderbilt. Provider data observed 2026-11-03T09:00:06.018Z.