Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Name: Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$15.29K

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Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

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Polymarket

markets · $15.29K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $15.29K

100%

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1 market tracked

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	Poly	19%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

19%

Top Probability

$15.29K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (350 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An emergency me"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $15.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $10.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.41)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $15.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

349d 8h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

19¢

Polymarket

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Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

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Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)