Name: Highest temperature in Madrid on April 19?
End: 2026-04-19T12:00:00.000Z

PredictPedia

Markets Wiki

Highest temperature in Madrid on April 19? | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $12.53K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $12.53K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 19?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 19?	Poly	39%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 19?	Poly	30%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 19?	Poly	24%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 19?	Poly	9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 19?	Poly	4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or higher on April 19?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 19?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 19?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 19?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 19?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C or below on April 19?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

39%

Top Probability

$12.53K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madri

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, April 18, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in Madrid on April 19?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 19, 2026 (1 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madri

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature re"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $12.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $62.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.20)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C or below on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $738
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $975
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $802
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $589
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or higher on April 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 19, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate