Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETCrypto
Penguin listed on Binance by March 31?
Total Volume
$200.97K
Events
1
Markets
1
Penguin listed on Binance by March 31?
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $200.97K
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $200.97K
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
Penguin listed on Binance by March 31?
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 3% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
3%
Top Probability
$200.97K
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the crypto token Nietzschean Penguin ($PENGUIN) (8Jx8AAHj86wbQgUTjGuj6GTTL5Ps3cqxKRTvpaJApump) is listed for spot purchase on Binance by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be Binance, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets currently give Nietzschean Penguin ($PENGUIN) only a 3% chance of being listed on Binance by the end of March. In simple terms, traders collectively see this as very unlikely, estimating roughly a 1 in 33 chance it happens before the deadline. The market reflects low confidence, with the "No" outcome heavily favored.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
Several factors explain the low odds. First, Binance has a rigorous listing process that evaluates a project's trading volume, liquidity, user base, and regulatory compliance. $PENGUIN, which launched on the Solana network, is a newer meme coin without the established track record or massive community size that typically precedes a major exchange listing.
Second, the broader context matters. The crypto market sees hundreds of new tokens created weekly, and only a tiny fraction ever get listed on top-tier exchanges like Binance. Even for popular meme coins, the path to a Binance listing often requires sustained viral attention and trading activity over many months, not just a brief spike.
Finally, the token's contract address, which includes "pump" in its name, may signal its meme-centric nature. While this doesn't disqualify it, Binance historically prioritizes listings with more substantive development activity or unique utility, which many pure meme coins lack.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The main deadline is March 31, 2026. Any official announcement from Binance regarding $PENGUIN before that date would immediately shift predictions. Watch for significant increases in the token's daily trading volume and sustained social media momentum, as these are metrics exchanges monitor. A major partnership or unexpected development that gives the project more substance could also change its prospects, though time is short.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
Prediction markets are generally effective at aggregating dispersed information about events with clear outcomes, like exchange listings. Their track record on similar "listing by date" questions is mixed, however. They tend to be good at identifying longshots, but they can sometimes miss sudden, unexpected announcements. The low trading volume on this specific question also means the price could be more easily swayed by a few large bets. While the collective intelligence here suggests a listing is improbable, surprises in crypto are always possible.
Current Market Outlook
The prediction market assigns a 3% probability that the Nietzschean Penguin ($PENGUIN) token will be listed on Binance by March 31, 2026. This price, equivalent to 3 cents on a yes/no share, indicates the market views a listing as highly improbable within this timeframe. With $201,000 in volume, the market has attracted moderate speculative interest, but the consensus is strongly negative.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The low probability directly reflects Binance's stringent listing standards and the token's specific profile. Nietzschean Penguin is a memecoin on the Solana blockchain, a category known for extreme volatility and speculative mania. Binance has historically been selective with memecoin listings, often requiring proven organic traction, sustained trading volume, and community growth over extended periods. The current 3% price suggests traders see minimal evidence that $PENGUIN meets these commercial and risk criteria. Furthermore, the token's contract address identifier includes "pump," a detail that may signal its speculative nature and potentially hinder serious exchange consideration.
What Could Change These Odds
A sudden, massive surge in the token's market capitalization and sustained daily trading volume on other major platforms like Raydium or Orca could force Binance to reevaluate. An official, verifiable announcement from a Binance listing team member or a dedicated application channel would be a primary catalyst. However, the timeline of 39 days is a significant barrier. Binance's listing process from application to technical integration typically takes weeks or months, making a last-minute approval before the deadline unlikely. The odds would shift most dramatically on confirmation of a formal listing application submission, but even then, the market would likely price in the extended review period, keeping probabilities low for this specific March 31 cutoff.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.