Vermont Governor General Election: voter turnout
$0.00
1
5
Vermont Governor General Election: voter turnout
$0.00
1
5
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
About This Event
Vermont Governor General Election If the total vote count for all participants in Vermont Governor General Election is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official resul
Current Market Outlook
Kalshi traders are pricing an 84% probability that total voter turnout in Vermont's 2026 governor general election will exceed 340,000. That is a strong consensus. The market sees this threshold as likely but not guaranteed. For context, Vermont is the second smallest state by population, with roughly 650,000 residents and about 500,000 registered voters.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
Vermont's gubernatorial turnout has been relatively stable. In 2022, turnout hit roughly 340,000 in a competitive three-way race between Phil Scott (R), Brenda Siegel (D), and Peter Duval (Progressive). Scott won with 69% of 340,000 total votes. In 2020, turnout was higher at about 375,000, driven by the presidential election. In 2018, a midterm with Scott running for reelection, turnout was around 310,000.
The current market pricing suggests traders expect turnout similar to 2022 or slightly higher, but not the presidential-level surge of 2020. The 84% confidence implies the market sees the 340,000 threshold as below a typical midterm baseline, but not so low that a low-turnout scenario is impossible. Vermont has no competitive statewide races in 2026 outside the governor seat, and Scott is not term limited. If he runs again, turnout could stay flat or even dip.
What Could Change These Odds
The biggest risk to the current 84% price is a low-turnout election. Vermont has a history of low-participation races when the governor race is noncompetitive. If Scott does not run, an open seat primary could drive turnout up. But if Scott runs unopposed or faces only token opposition, turnout could fall below 300,000. The 2022 race was competitive by Vermont standards, and still barely crossed 340,000.
The key date is the candidate filing deadline in 2026, likely around May. If no serious Democratic challenger emerges, expect the 84% to fall. If a credible challenger enters, odds could climb toward 90% or higher.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Overview
The Vermont Governor General Election voter turnout market focuses on whether total votes cast in the race for governor will exceed a specific threshold. Vermont holds gubernatorial elections every two years, with the most recent in 2024. Voter turnout in Vermont has historically been among the highest in the United States, often ranking first or second nationally for midterm and presidential elections. The state's small population, same-day voter registration, and universal mail-in voting laws contribute to high participation rates. In 2020, Vermont had a voter turnout of 72.4% of eligible voters, the highest in the country, according to the U.S. Elections Project. The 2022 governor race between Republican Phil Scott and Democrat Brenda Siegel saw 337,445 total votes cast, with Scott winning a fourth term. The 2024 election, where Scott faced Democratic challenger Esther Charlestin, saw a total vote count of 360,247, according to the Vermont Secretary of State's certified results. The market resolves based on the official certification, which includes all valid ballots, including absentee, early, mail-in, and provisional ballots. Interest in this market stems from the ability to predict voter engagement levels, which can reflect broader political sentiment, policy satisfaction, and the effectiveness of get-out-the-vote efforts. Vermont's consistent high turnout makes it a bellwether for democratic participation trends.
Historical Context
Vermont's gubernatorial elections have a long history of high voter participation, driven by the state's civic culture and accessible voting laws. Since 1990, Vermont has allowed same-day voter registration, which boosts turnout by removing advance registration barriers. In 2020, the state implemented universal mail-in voting for the general election due to the COVID-19 pandemic, a policy later made permanent for all elections through Act 60 in 2021. This law requires the Secretary of State to mail ballots to all active registered voters, contributing to turnout rates exceeding 70% in recent cycles. The 2020 presidential election saw 381,000 votes cast in Vermont, with a turnout rate of 72.4% of eligible voters, the highest in the U.S. In the 2022 midterm, gubernatorial turnout was 337,445 votes, a slight drop from 2020 but still high compared to other states. The 2024 election total of 360,247 votes reflects a midterm-like cycle with a popular incumbent. Historical data from the Vermont Secretary of State shows that gubernatorial vote counts have ranged from 255,000 in 2014 to 381,000 in 2020, with the average since 2000 around 320,000. These figures help set expectations for market thresholds.
Why It Matters
Voter turnout in Vermont's governor race matters because it signals the health of democratic participation in a state often cited as a model for election access. High turnout suggests strong civic engagement and trust in the electoral process, while lower turnout could indicate voter fatigue, disenfranchisement, or dissatisfaction with candidates. The outcome affects how other states view policies like universal mail-in voting and same-day registration, as Vermont's success could encourage similar reforms elsewhere. Economically, gubernatorial elections influence state budgets, tax policies, and spending on education, healthcare, and infrastructure. Turnout levels can also impact the margin of victory, potentially shifting policy direction if a challenger wins. For prediction markets, this topic allows traders to gauge public sentiment and political momentum, with implications for broader electoral forecasting. Downstream, the results inform campaign strategies for future races and provide data for academic research on voting behavior.
Current Status
As of the 2024 election, the certified total vote count for the Vermont Governor General Election is 360,247, according to the Vermont Secretary of State's office. This figure was released on December 2, 2024, after all provisional and absentee ballots were counted. The market resolved to Yes if the threshold was below this number. The race saw incumbent Phil Scott win a fifth term with 73.2% of the vote, defeating Democrat Esther Charlestin. Turnout was slightly lower than the 2020 presidential year but higher than the 2022 midterm, reflecting sustained engagement. The Vermont legislature is currently considering a bill to further streamline ballot access, which could impact future turnout.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the voter turnout rate in Vermont governor elections?
Voter turnout in Vermont governor elections typically ranges from 55% to 75% of eligible voters, depending on the year. In 2020, it was 72.4%, the highest in the U.S., while 2022 saw about 66% turnout.
How are votes counted in Vermont governor elections?
Votes are counted by local town clerks and then certified by the Vermont Secretary of State. All ballots, including mail-in, early, absentee, and provisional, are included in the official certification.
What factors affect voter turnout in Vermont?
Key factors include the competitiveness of the race, weather, voter registration laws (same-day registration), and the availability of mail-in voting. Incumbency and national political climate also play roles.
Has Vermont always had high voter turnout?
Yes, Vermont has historically ranked among the top states for voter turnout since the 1990s, due to its small population, civic engagement, and progressive voting laws like same-day registration and universal mail-in ballots.
How does the Vermont governor election compare to other states?
Vermont's governor election turnout is consistently among the highest in the nation, often exceeding 60% even in midterm years, compared to the national average of around 50% for gubernatorial races.
What is the threshold for the prediction market on Vermont governor turnout?
The market resolves to Yes if the total vote count for all participants in the Vermont Governor General Election is above a specified threshold X. The exact threshold is set by the market creator and varies by contract.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
