What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Prediction markets are forecasting a near-certain chance that Miami's temperature will not break 80 degrees Fahrenheit on February 20. Traders have collectively priced the probability for "79°F or below" at 100%. In practical terms, this means the market sees it as virtually guaranteed that the day's high will stay within a comfortable, warm range typical for a Miami winter, rather than reaching hotter levels.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

Two main factors explain this high confidence. First, the date falls squarely within South Florida's dry season, which runs from November through April. This period is characterized by reliably warm, sunny days with low humidity and very little chance of the extreme heat seen in summer. Historical weather data for Miami International Airport shows the average high temperature in late February is around 77°F.

Second, specific short-term forecasts align with this pattern. As the resolution date approaches, weather models show no signs of a significant heat wave or unusual atmospheric pattern that would push temperatures into the 80s. The consistency between the climatic norm and the current forecast gives traders strong reason to believe in a predictable outcome.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The main event is the day itself, February 20. The market will resolve shortly after, once the official daily data from the Miami International Airport weather station is published on Wunderground. In the final 24-48 hours before the 20th, any major shift would require an unexpected update from the National Weather Service or a sudden change in short-range forecast models. Such a last-minute shift is considered highly unlikely given the stable weather patterns of the season.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

For short-term weather outcomes based on established station data, prediction markets tend to be very accurate, especially when consensus forms around a high probability. The weather is a bounded, measurable event with clear historical trends. The main limitation here isn't accuracy but liquidity. While nearly $100,000 has been wagered on this set of questions, that is a relatively small amount. This means the odds are likely correct, but the market could be slower to react to a genuine, last-minute shock than a larger market would be. For a standard February day in Miami, however, such a shock is historically rare.