Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Talarico for Texas Total Receipts (Q3)

Total Volume

$13.57K

Events

Markets

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Talarico for Texas Total Receipts (Q3)

Vol

$13.57K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $13.57K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $13.57K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $35M in total receipts during Q3?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Talarico for Texas report more than $35M in total receipts during Q3?	Kalshi	98%
Will Talarico for Texas report more than $30M in total receipts during Q3?	Kalshi	98%
Will Talarico for Texas report more than $25M in total receipts during Q3?	Kalshi	98%
Will Talarico for Texas report more than $40M in total receipts during Q3?	Kalshi	96%
Will Talarico for Texas report more than $50M in total receipts during Q3?	Kalshi	94%
Will Talarico for Texas report more than $45M in total receipts during Q3?	Kalshi	94%
Will Talarico for Texas report more than $55M in total receipts during Q3?	Kalshi	83%
Will Talarico for Texas report more than $60M in total receipts during Q3?	Kalshi	72%
Will Talarico for Texas report more than $65M in total receipts during Q3?	Kalshi	62%
Will Talarico for Texas report more than $70M in total receipts during Q3?	Kalshi	54%
Will Talarico for Texas report more than $75M in total receipts during Q3?	Kalshi	36%
Will Talarico for Texas report more than $80M in total receipts during Q3?	Kalshi	30%
Will Talarico for Texas report more than $85M in total receipts during Q3?	Kalshi	25%
Will Talarico for Texas report more than $90M in total receipts during Q3?	Kalshi	16%
Will Talarico for Texas report more than $95M in total receipts during Q3?	Kalshi	9%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$13.57K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Q3 If Talarico for Texas's total receipts is above X million from July 1 through September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission, FEC. Only the first official or non-preliminary release of the relevant statistic will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Talarico for Texas Total Receipts (Q3)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Q3

If Talarico for Texas's total receipts is above X million from July 1 through September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission, FEC. Only the first official or non-preliminary release of the relevant statistic will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Talarico for Texas's total receipts is above $95 million from July 1 through September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary r"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Talarico for Texas report more than $95M in total receipts during Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Talarico for Texas report more than $90M in total receipts during Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Talarico for Texas report more than $85M in total receipts during Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Talarico for Texas report more than $80M in total receipts during Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $16
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Talarico for Texas report more than $75M in total receipts during Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $16
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Talarico for Texas report more than $70M in total receipts during Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $16
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Talarico for Texas report more than $65M in total receipts during Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $16
  DATA: [Yes: 62.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Talarico for Texas report more than $60M in total receipts during Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $659
  DATA: [Yes: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Talarico for Texas report more than $55M in total receipts during Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $208
  DATA: [Yes: 82.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Talarico for Texas report more than $50M in total receipts during Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Talarico for Texas report more than $45M in total receipts during Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Talarico for Texas report more than $40M in total receipts during Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $701
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Talarico for Texas report more than $35M in total receipts during Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Talarico for Texas report more than $30M in total receipts during Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Talarico for Texas report more than $25M in total receipts during Q3?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Talarico for Texas Total Receipts (Q3)

Volume$13.57K

Markets15

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KALSHI

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $35M in total receipts during Q3?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $35M in total receipts during Q3?

If Talarico for Texas's total receipts is above $35 million from July 1 through September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary r

KALSHI

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $30M in total receipts during Q3?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $30M in total receipts during Q3?

If Talarico for Texas's total receipts is above $30 million from July 1 through September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary r

KALSHI

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $25M in total receipts during Q3?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $25M in total receipts during Q3?

If Talarico for Texas's total receipts is above $25 million from July 1 through September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary r

KALSHI

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $40M in total receipts during Q3?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $40M in total receipts during Q3?

If Talarico for Texas's total receipts is above $40 million from July 1 through September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary r

KALSHI

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $50M in total receipts during Q3?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 93.5¢No 6.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $50M in total receipts during Q3?

If Talarico for Texas's total receipts is above $50 million from July 1 through September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary r

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64¢

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Will Talarico for Texas report more than $35M in total receipts during Q3?

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Events (1)

Talarico for Texas Total Receipts (Q3)

Markets (15)

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $35M in total receipts during Q3?

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $35M in total receipts during Q3?

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $30M in total receipts during Q3?

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $30M in total receipts during Q3?

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $25M in total receipts during Q3?

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $25M in total receipts during Q3?

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $40M in total receipts during Q3?

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $40M in total receipts during Q3?

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $50M in total receipts during Q3?

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $50M in total receipts during Q3?

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Will Talarico for Texas report more than $35M in total receipts during Q3?

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Talarico for Texas Total Receipts (Q3)

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $35M in total receipts during Q3?

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $35M in total receipts during Q3?

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $30M in total receipts during Q3?

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $30M in total receipts during Q3?

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $25M in total receipts during Q3?

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $25M in total receipts during Q3?

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $40M in total receipts during Q3?

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $40M in total receipts during Q3?

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $50M in total receipts during Q3?

Will Talarico for Texas report more than $50M in total receipts during Q3?

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