Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by March 31? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by March 31?

Name: Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by March 31?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$13.92K

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Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by March 31?

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Polymarket

markets · $13.92K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $13.92K

100%

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1 market tracked

Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by March 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by March 31?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$13.92K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolas Sarkozy is confined in a jail or prison for any length of time between November 10, 2025, 1:30 PM ET, and March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". House arrest will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the detaining government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by March 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (75 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolas Sarkozy is confined in a jail or prison for any length of time between November 10, 2025, 1:30 PM ET, and March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

House arrest will not qualify toward the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the detaining government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolas Sarkozy is confined in a jail or prison for any length of time between November 10, 2025, 1:30 PM ET, and March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

House arrest will not qualify toward the resolution of this market.

Th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.3K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.67)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $13.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

74d 8h remaining

Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

2¢

Polymarket

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Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by March 31?

Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by March 31?

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Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by March 31?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)