Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?

Name: Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$401.96K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $401.96K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $401.96K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$401.96K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes 750,000 or more non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be us

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2025 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes 750,000 or more non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be us

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes 750,000 or more non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $402.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.3K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 309.55)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2025): Vol $402.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

4¢

Polymarket

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/iYRrxZ" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?"></iframe>

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Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?

Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?

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Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)