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Event GroupPOLYMARKETScience

Precipitation in Hong Kong in April?

Name: Precipitation in Hong Kong in April?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$142.90K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Precipitation in Hong Kong in April?

Vol

$142.90K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $142.90K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $142.90K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?	Poly	98%
Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April?	Poly	2%
Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?	Poly	0%
Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April?	Poly	0%
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?	Poly	0%
Will Hong Kong have between 130-140mm of precipitation in April?	Poly	0%
Will Hong Kong have between 170-180mm of precipitation in April?	Poly	0%
Will Hong Kong have between 180-190mm of precipitation in April?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$142.90K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, thi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, August 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Precipitation in Hong Kong in April?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.

The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.

If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, thi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.

The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $142.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $20.8K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.85)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $41.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $28.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $12.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.1% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $20.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Hong Kong have between 130-140mm of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $18.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Hong Kong have between 170-180mm of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $10.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Hong Kong have between 180-190mm of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETScience