Name: Precipitation in Hong Kong in April?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

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Precipitation in Hong Kong in April? | PredictPedia

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8 markets tracked

Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?	Poly	98%
Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April?	Poly	2%
Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?	Poly	0%
Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April?	Poly	0%
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?	Poly	0%
Will Hong Kong have between 130-140mm of precipitation in April?	Poly	0%
Will Hong Kong have between 170-180mm of precipitation in April?	Poly	0%
Will Hong Kong have between 180-190mm of precipitation in April?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Precipitation in Hong Kong in April?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.

The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.

If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, thi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.

The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $142.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $20.8K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.85)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $41.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $28.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $12.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.1% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $20.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Hong Kong have between 130-140mm of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $18.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Hong Kong have between 170-180mm of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $10.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Hong Kong have between 180-190mm of precipitation in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?

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Events (1)

Precipitation in Hong Kong in April?

Markets (8)

Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?

Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?

Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April?

Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April?

Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?

Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?

Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April?

Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April?

Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?

Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?

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Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Precipitation in Hong Kong in April?

Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?

Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?

Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April?

Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April?

Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?

Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?

Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April?

Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April?

Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?

Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?

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Discussion

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