Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US existing home · Median sales price in September

Total Volume

$9.83K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

US existing home · Median sales price in September

Vol

$9.83K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $9.83K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.83K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $405,000?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $405,000?	Kalshi	97%
Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $410,000?	Kalshi	85%
Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $415,000?	Kalshi	81%
Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $420,000?	Kalshi	50%
Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $425,000?	Kalshi	20%
Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $430,000?	Kalshi	7%
Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $435,000?	Kalshi	4%
Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $445,000?	Kalshi	3%
Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $440,000?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$9.83K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

September 2026 If the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes, HOSMEDUSM052N, for September 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Median Sales Price of Existing Homes, HOSMEDUSM052N, stated in U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US existing home · Median sales price in September
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** September 2026

If the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes, HOSMEDUSM052N, for September 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Median Sales Price of Existing Homes, HOSMEDUSM052N, stated in U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 is above $445,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N), stated i"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $445,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $16
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $440,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $15
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $435,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $430,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $425,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $420,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $387
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $415,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $746
  DATA: [Yes: 80.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $410,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $419
  DATA: [Yes: 84.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $405,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $210
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US existing home · Median sales price in September

Volume$9.83K

Markets9

9 of 9

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $405,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $405,000?

If the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 is above $405,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N), stated i

KALSHI

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $410,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 84.5¢No 15.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $410,000?

If the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 is above $410,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N), stated i

KALSHI

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $415,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 80.5¢No 19.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $415,000?

If the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 is above $415,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N), stated i

KALSHI

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $420,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $420,000?

If the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 is above $420,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N), stated i

KALSHI

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $425,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.0¢No 80.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $425,000?

If the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 is above $425,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N), stated i

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

38¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/ilewBX" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="US existing home · Median sales price in September"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

US existing home · Median sales price in September

US existing home · Median sales price in September

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $405,000?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

US existing home · Median sales price in September

Markets (9)

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $405,000?

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $405,000?

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $410,000?

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $410,000?

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $415,000?

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $415,000?

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $420,000?

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $420,000?

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $425,000?

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $425,000?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $405,000?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US existing home · Median sales price in September

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $405,000?

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $405,000?

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $410,000?

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $410,000?

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $415,000?

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $415,000?

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $420,000?

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $420,000?

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $425,000?

Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for September 2026 be above $425,000?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget