Name: Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
End: 2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z

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Fed decisions (Apr-Jul) | PredictPedia

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5 markets tracked

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	Poly	84%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	Poly	11%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	Poly	7%
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	Poly	2%
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	Poly	1%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jul 29, 2026 (75 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was pr

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Ope"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $58.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.12)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 29, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 84.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 29, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 29, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 29, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 29, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

74d 12h remaining

Jul 29, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

21¢

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Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

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Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Markets (5)

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

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Discussion

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