GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEntertainment

Oscar nominees: Best Actor

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Oscar nominees: Best Actor

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28 markets tracked

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Tom Cruise)

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Single-Platform Markets(28)

Market	Platform	Price
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Tom Cruise)	Kalshi	73%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (John Malkovich)	Kalshi	66%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Ryan Gosling)	Kalshi	56%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Matt Damon)	Kalshi	56%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Sebastian Stan)	Kalshi	51%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Andrew Scott)	Kalshi	50%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Timothée Chalamet)	Kalshi	30%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Jaafar Jackson)	Kalshi	27%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Pedro Pascal)	Kalshi	24%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Dominic Sessa)	Kalshi	16%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Brad Pitt)	Kalshi	16%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Adam Driver)	Kalshi	16%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Andrew Garfield)	Kalshi	13%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (John Turturro)	Kalshi	13%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Jeremy Strong)	Kalshi	11%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Sam Rockwell)	Kalshi	10%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Ethan Hawke)	Kalshi	8%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Adam Scott)	Kalshi	6%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Jeremy Allen White)	Kalshi	6%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Charles Melton)	Kalshi	4%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Javier Bardem)	Kalshi	3%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Robert DeNiro)	Kalshi	3%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Channing Tatum)	Kalshi	3%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Sacha Baron Cohen)	Kalshi	3%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Hanns Zischler)	Kalshi	3%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Robert Aramayo)	Kalshi	3%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Keanu Reeves)	Kalshi	3%
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Josh O'Connor)	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

73%

Top Probability

$0.00

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About This Event

In 2027 If X has been nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Oscar nominees: Best Actor
**Category:** Entertainment | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2027

If X has been nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Andrew Garfield has been nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027.

This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Andrew Garfield)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Ethan Hawke)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Sacha Baron Cohen)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Adam Scott)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Robert DeNiro)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Hanns Zischler)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (John Turturro)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Javier Bardem)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Dominic Sessa)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Robert Aramayo)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Jeremy Allen White)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Pedro Pascal)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Jeremy Strong)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Sam Rockwell)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Ryan Gosling)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 56.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Matt Damon)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 56.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Jaafar Jackson)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Timothée Chalamet)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Tom Cruise)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 72.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Sebastian Stan)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Keanu Reeves)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Josh O'Connor)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (John Malkovich)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 65.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Channing Tatum)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 25. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Charles Melton)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 26. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Brad Pitt)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 27. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Andrew Scott)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 28. 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Adam Driver)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEntertainment

Oscar nominees: Best Actor

Volume$0.00

Markets28

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KALSHI

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Tom Cruise)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 72.5¢No 27.5¢

KALSHICulture

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Tom Cruise)

If Tom Cruise has been nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Osca

KALSHI

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (John Malkovich)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 65.5¢No 34.5¢

KALSHICulture

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (John Malkovich)

If John Malkovich has been nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to

KALSHI

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Ryan Gosling)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 56.5¢No 43.5¢

KALSHICulture

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Ryan Gosling)

If Ryan Gosling has been nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Os

KALSHI

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Matt Damon)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 56.5¢No 43.5¢

KALSHICulture

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Matt Damon)

If Matt Damon has been nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Osca

KALSHI

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Sebastian Stan)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

KALSHICulture

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Sebastian Stan)

If Sebastian Stan has been nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to

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Oscar nominees: Best Actor

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2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Tom Cruise)

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Oscar nominees: Best Actor

Markets (28)

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Tom Cruise)

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Tom Cruise)

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (John Malkovich)

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (John Malkovich)

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Ryan Gosling)

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Ryan Gosling)

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Matt Damon)

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Matt Damon)

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Sebastian Stan)

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Sebastian Stan)

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2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Tom Cruise)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Oscar nominees: Best Actor

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Tom Cruise)

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Tom Cruise)

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (John Malkovich)

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (John Malkovich)

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Ryan Gosling)

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Ryan Gosling)

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Matt Damon)

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Matt Damon)

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Sebastian Stan)

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? (Sebastian Stan)

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