$12.17K
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3
$12.17K
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3
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This event is for the upcoming Serie B game, scheduled for Saturday, January 17, 2026 between Empoli FC and FC Südtirol.
Prediction markets currently assign a 40% probability to Empoli FC defeating FC Südtirol in their Serie B match on January 17, 2026. This price, trading on Polymarket with approximately $12,000 in total volume, indicates the market views an Empoli victory as the less likely outcome. A 40% chance suggests bettors see this as a closely contested match where a draw or an away win is marginally favored. The relatively thin liquidity across the three related markets highlights this as a niche sporting event within the prediction market ecosystem.
The pricing reflects Empoli's challenging position as a recently relegated side struggling for consistency. Historically, clubs dropping from Serie A often face a difficult adjustment period in Serie B, battling to regain winning form against organized, motivated opponents. FC Südtirol, while a smaller club, has built a reputation for being a disciplined and hard-to-beat side, particularly in matches against more traditionally prestigious teams. The current odds likely incorporate Empoli's potential instability and Südtirol's capability to secure a positive result on the road, making the home win a sub-50% proposition.
Final team news and starting lineups released on match day will be the primary catalyst for last-minute price movement. A key injury or suspension for a pivotal Südtirol defender, for example, could see money flow toward Empoli, raising their win probability above 40%. Conversely, confirmation of a missing star attacker for Empoli could solidify the current pricing or push it even lower. Given the low liquidity, even a modest-sized bet could cause a significant shift in the quoted probability in the final hours before kickoff.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns an upcoming Serie B football match between Empoli FC and FC Südtirol, scheduled for Saturday, January 17, 2026. Serie B is the second-highest professional football division in Italy, operating under the Lega Nazionale Professionisti Serie B. The match represents a clash between two clubs with distinct identities and recent trajectories. Empoli, based in Tuscany, is a historically established club that has experienced multiple promotions to Serie A, most recently in the 2020-21 season, before their relegation in 2025. FC Südtirol, representing the autonomous province of South Tyrol, is a relatively newer professional entity that has risen through the Italian football pyramid, achieving a historic first promotion to Serie B in 2022. The interest in this match stems from its implications for the Serie B league table in the 2025-26 season, where every point is crucial for promotion aspirations or to avoid relegation. For Empoli, the match is an opportunity to leverage home advantage at the Stadio Carlo Castellani to mount a challenge for an immediate return to the top flight. For Südtirol, it represents a significant test against a recently relegated side with greater resources and Serie A experience. The prediction market allows participants to speculate on the match outcome, reflecting analyses of current form, squad strength, managerial tactics, and historical head-to-head records.
Empoli FC was founded in 1920 and has a long history oscillating between Serie A and Serie B. The club enjoyed a sustained period in Serie A from 2014 to 2019 and again from 2021 to 2025, establishing itself as a stable top-flight club known for developing young talent. Their most recent relegation in May 2025 marked the end of a four-season stint in Serie A, prompting a rebuild for an immediate promotion challenge. In contrast, FC Südtirol's history is markedly different. Founded in 1995 following a merger, the club from Bolzano spent decades in the lower tiers of Italian football, primarily in Serie D and Lega Pro. Their rise began in earnest in the 2010s, culminating in a historic promotion to Serie B for the first time in the 2022-23 season after winning the Serie C group A title. The two clubs have a very limited direct history due to Südtirol's recent ascent. Their first competitive meetings occurred in the 2023-24 Serie B season after Südtirol's promotion. In that campaign, Empoli, then still in Serie A, did not face them. Their inaugural Serie B encounters took place in the 2025-26 season, making this rivalry a new and developing one within the Italian second division.
Beyond the three points at stake, this match has significant implications for the financial and sporting landscapes of both clubs. For Empoli, failure to secure promotion back to Serie A would mean a second season without the substantial financial distributions from the league's media rights deal, which is drastically higher in the top division. This could impact their ability to retain key players and invest in the squad. For FC Südtirol, maintaining Serie B status is crucial for the club's growth model and for raising the profile of football in the South Tyrol region, which has a strong cultural affinity for other sports. A successful season can enhance commercial revenues and attract investment. The match also matters for the competitive integrity of Serie B. Empoli, as a recently relegated team, is expected to be among the promotion contenders. Their performance against well-organized sides like Südtirol tests that assumption and shapes the narrative of the promotion race. For Südtirol, earning points against such opponents validates their project and could inspire other smaller clubs with ambitions of climbing the pyramid.
As the match approaches in mid-January 2026, both teams are engaged in the winter transfer window, which could see last-minute squad adjustments. The Serie B season is near its midpoint, and the league table is taking shape. Empoli is positioned within the promotion playoff places, needing a victory to keep pressure on the automatic promotion spots. FC Südtirol is likely situated in the middle of the table, aiming for a result to distance themselves from the relegation zone and build momentum. Both teams are coming off their final matches before this fixture, with their recent form, any injuries from those games, and tactical preparations being the immediate focus of analysis for predictors and fans alike.
The exact kick-off time for the Serie B match on Saturday, January 17, 2026, will be confirmed by the league closer to the date. Serie B matches are typically scheduled for afternoon slots such as 14:00, 15:00, or 16:00 CET, or occasionally for evening fixtures at 18:00 or 20:30 CET.
Broadcast rights for Serie B vary by country. In Italy, matches are primarily shown on platforms like Sky Sport Italia or DAZN. International viewers should check local sports broadcasters or streaming services that hold the rights to Serie B in their region for specific channel information.
Empoli FC plays its home matches at the Stadio Carlo Castellani in Empoli, Tuscany. The stadium has an all-seated capacity of approximately 16,800 spectators. It has been the club's home ground since 1965.
No, FC Südtirol has never played in Serie A. The club's highest-ever division is Serie B, which they first reached by winning promotion from Serie C in the 2022-23 season. Their match against Empoli represents a contest against a club with recent top-flight experience.
Francesco Tavano is Empoli's all-time top scorer in Serie A. For overall historical context, players like Antonio Di Natale and Massimo Maccarone also had prolific spells with the club, contributing significantly to its goal tally across various competitions.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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3 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 42% |
| Poly | 32% |
| Poly | 28% |
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