$34.82K
1
7
$34.82K
1
7
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jan '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To
Prediction markets are assigning a low probability to the specific outcome of Toronto's highest temperature reaching exactly 1°C on January 17, 2026. On Polymarket, the contract for this precise temperature is trading at approximately 39¢, implying the market sees only a 39% chance of this outcome. This suggests traders view a 1°C high as a plausible but not the most likely scenario, with significant probability distributed across other potential temperature ranges. The market exhibits very thin liquidity, with minimal trading volume, indicating low confidence and high sensitivity to new weather model data.
The pricing reflects standard climatological patterns for Toronto in mid-January. The city's average daily high temperature for this period is typically between -1°C and -3°C, making a reading of 1°C slightly above the historical norm. The current 39% probability likely incorporates recent short-term forecast models, which may be indicating a potential weak warming trend or a passing system that could briefly push temperatures near the freezing mark. However, the sub-50% price confirms that a precisely 1°C outcome is considered an edge-case deviation from the more probable sub-zero or slightly below-zero high.
These odds are highly volatile and will be almost entirely dictated by incoming meteorological data. The key catalyst will be the evolution of high-resolution forecast models in the 48 hours leading to January 17. A stronger forecast for a warm front or a surge of mild Pacific air could rapidly increase the probability for the 1°C contract. Conversely, model trends reinforcing Arctic air dominance or increased cloud cover/precipitation would drive the price down significantly. Given the low liquidity, even minor forecast updates from agencies like Environment Canada could cause large price swings before the market resolves based on the actual observed data from Toronto Pearson International Airport.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on January 17, 2026. The market resolves based on the highest temperature reading in degrees Celsius for that specific date, as reported by the weather station at Canada's busiest airport and verified through the Wunderground historical data platform. This type of weather prediction market allows participants to speculate on and hedge against specific meteorological outcomes, transforming climatological data into a tradable financial instrument. The interest stems from Toronto's highly variable winter climate, where January temperatures can swing dramatically due to lake-effect snow moderation from Lake Ontario, arctic air outbreaks, or unseasonably warm Pacific air masses. Recent years have shown increased volatility in winter temperatures, with record-breaking warm spells occurring alongside extreme cold snaps, making such predictions both challenging and economically relevant. Participants include meteorologists, climate researchers, businesses affected by weather, and speculative traders analyzing historical patterns and seasonal forecasts.
Toronto's winter climate has been documented since the establishment of the Toronto Magnetic and Meteorological Observatory in 1840. The official recording location moved to what is now Pearson Airport in 1937, providing a continuous, long-term record for the region. Historically, January is Toronto's coldest month, with an average daily high of -1.3°C (29.7°F) based on the 1981-2010 climate normal. However, extreme variability defines the record books. The all-time highest January temperature recorded at Pearson is 16.1°C (61.0°F) on January 10, 2020, during a remarkable winter heatwave. Conversely, the lowest January high is -22.8°C (-9.0°F) set on January 18, 1977. The frequency of such extremes has changed. A 2021 study by Environment and Climate Change Canada found that the number of winter days with temperatures above 10°C in southern Ontario has increased significantly since the mid-20th century, a trend attributed to anthropogenic climate change. The specific date of January 17 has seen highs ranging from a record 12.2°C (54.0°F) in 2005 to a frigid -19.4°C (-2.9°F) in 1982, illustrating the wide potential outcome window for the prediction market.
The outcome of this specific temperature prediction has tangible economic implications. A significantly warmer-than-average January 17 reduces demand for natural gas and heating oil, impacting energy markets and utility company revenues. It can also affect retail, with lower sales of winter apparel and increased activity in construction and outdoor services. Conversely, an exceptionally cold day spikes heating demand and can strain power grids, while potentially boosting sales for certain consumer goods. Beyond immediate economics, the recorded temperature contributes to the ongoing dataset used to track climate trends in Canada's largest metropolitan area. Scientists and policymakers analyze such daily extremes to understand the pace and impacts of climate change in the region, informing adaptation strategies for infrastructure, public health, and emergency management. For prediction market participants, it represents a test of forecasting skill against both numerical weather models and climatological probability, with financial rewards for accuracy.
As of late 2024, the long-range seasonal forecast for the winter of 2025-2026 is not yet available from major forecasting centers. Market participants are currently relying on climatology, the historical distribution of January 17 temperatures, and decadal climate trends to inform early positions. The state of large-scale climate drivers, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean, will be a primary focus throughout 2025, as these patterns strongly influence seasonal temperature anomalies across North America. The operational status of the CYYZ weather station is normal, with Environment and Climate Change Canada maintaining continuous observation.
The highest temperature on a January day in Toronto typically occurs in the mid-to-late afternoon, between 2:00 PM and 4:00 PM Eastern Standard Time. This is when solar heating, though weak in winter, is at its maximum. The official daily high is the maximum reading from the 24-hour period ending at midnight local time.
Numerical weather prediction models cannot reliably forecast specific daily temperatures more than about 10-14 days in advance due to chaos in the atmosphere. For a date months away, forecasters rely on probabilistic seasonal outlooks that predict whether a month will be warmer or colder than average, not daily specifics. This uncertainty is what creates a active prediction market.
Market resolution rules typically specify a hierarchy of backup data sources in case of primary station failure. This may include designated backup stations like Toronto Buttonville Airport (CYKZ) or Toronto Island Airport (CYTZ), or the use of interpolated data from surrounding stations, as defined in the market's prospectus before trading begins.
Toronto Pearson is located in the suburban area of Mississauga, northwest of the city core. It experiences a less intense urban heat island effect compared to downtown stations. However, regional urbanization still contributes a warming bias to long-term temperature records, estimated to add approximately 0.5-1.0°C to nighttime lows, with a smaller impact on daytime highs.
The authoritative source is Environment and Climate Change Canada's Historical Climate Data website. Wunderground, the resolution source for this market, also provides a user-friendly interface for this data. For official climate records and verification, ECCC data takes precedence.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
7 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 67% |
| Poly | 17% |
| Poly | 9% |
| Poly | 3% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 0% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/j4SnMc" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Highest temperature in Toronto on January 16?"></iframe>