California Governor primary advancers? (Person) | PredictPedia

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15 markets tracked

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Xavier Becerra)

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Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Xavier Becerra)	Kalshi	84%
Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Steve Hilton)	Kalshi	77%
Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Tom Steyer)	Kalshi	35%
Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Chad Bianco)	Kalshi	8%
Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Katie Porter)	Kalshi	3%
Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Matt Mahan)	Kalshi	2%
Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Antonio Villaraigosa)	Kalshi	1%
Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Tony Thurmond)	Kalshi	1%
Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Eric Swalwell)	Kalshi	1%
Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Kamala Harris)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Ethan Agarwal)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Rob Bonta)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Rick Caruso)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Eleni Kounalakis)	Kalshi	0%
Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Betty Yee)	Kalshi	0%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, May 30, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** California Governor primary advancers? (Person)
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X advances to the general election for California governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Xavier Becerra advances to the general election for California governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Xavier Becerra)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 84.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Tony Thurmond)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Tom Steyer)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Steve Hilton)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 76.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Katie Porter)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Eric Swalwell)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 7. Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Ethan Agarwal)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 8. Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Chad Bianco)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.7% (0.0%)]

### 9. Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Betty Yee)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 10. Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Antonio Villaraigosa)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 11. Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Matt Mahan)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 12. Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Rob Bonta)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 13. Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Rick Caruso)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 14. Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Kamala Harris)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 15. Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Eleni Kounalakis)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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21¢

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California Governor primary advancers? (Person)

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Xavier Becerra)

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Events (1)

California Governor primary advancers? (Person)

Markets (10)

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Xavier Becerra)

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Xavier Becerra)

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Steve Hilton)

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Steve Hilton)

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Tom Steyer)

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Tom Steyer)

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Chad Bianco)

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Chad Bianco)

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Katie Porter)

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Katie Porter)

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Xavier Becerra)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

California Governor primary advancers? (Person)

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Xavier Becerra)

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Xavier Becerra)

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Steve Hilton)

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Steve Hilton)

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Tom Steyer)

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Tom Steyer)

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Chad Bianco)

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Chad Bianco)

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Katie Porter)

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? (Katie Porter)

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Discussion

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