GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

CPI in September

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CPI in September

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Kalshi

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7 markets tracked

Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in September 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in September 2026?	Kalshi	79%
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in September 2026?	Kalshi	77%
Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in September 2026?	Kalshi	69%
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in September 2026?	Kalshi	59%
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in September 2026?	Kalshi	49%
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in September 2026?	Kalshi	33%
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in September 2026?	Kalshi	16%

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79%

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About This Event

In Sep 2026 If the Consumer Price Index, CPI, increases by more than X single-decimal, in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release, October 14, 2026. Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** CPI in September
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In Sep 2026

If the Consumer Price Index, CPI, increases by more than X single-decimal, in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release, October 14, 2026. Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.5% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in September 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in September 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in September 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in September 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in September 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 69.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in September 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 78.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in September 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 13, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 76.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

CPI in September

Volume$0.00

Markets7

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KALSHI

Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in September 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 78.5¢No 21.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in September 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.1% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single

KALSHI

Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in September 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 76.5¢No 23.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in September 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.0% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-

KALSHI

Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in September 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 69.0¢No 31.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in September 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.1% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-

KALSHI

Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in September 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 58.5¢No 41.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in September 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.2% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-

KALSHI

Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in September 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 48.5¢No 51.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in September 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.3% (single-decimal) in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (October 14, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-

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Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in September 2026?

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Events (1)

CPI in September

Markets (7)

Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in September 2026?

Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in September 2026?

Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in September 2026?

Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in September 2026?

Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in September 2026?

Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in September 2026?

Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in September 2026?

Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in September 2026?

Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in September 2026?

Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in September 2026?

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Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in September 2026?

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CPI in September

Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in September 2026?

Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in September 2026?

Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in September 2026?

Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in September 2026?

Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in September 2026?

Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in September 2026?

Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in September 2026?

Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in September 2026?

Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in September 2026?

Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in September 2026?

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