$2.35K
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$2.35K
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In Feb 2026 If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above X as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of February 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.
Prediction markets are pricing in near-certainty that the U.S. economy will add more than -25,000 jobs in February 2026. The leading contract on Kalshi, "Will above -25,000 jobs be added in February 2026?", is trading at 94 cents, implying a 94% probability of a "Yes" outcome. This high probability indicates the market views a net job loss of 25,000 or more as extremely unlikely. In practical terms, the market is forecasting positive job growth for that month, as the bar of "-25,000" is a negative threshold. The thin trading volume of approximately $2,000 across related markets suggests this is a consensus view with limited speculative activity.
The primary factor is historical labor market resilience. Since the Great Recession, the U.S. economy has experienced negative monthly payrolls only during acute economic shocks, such as the early pandemic lockdowns. In a typical economic expansion or even a mild slowdown, monthly job growth tends to remain positive. The current pricing reflects a base case that the economy in early 2026 will not be in a severe recessionary downturn. Secondly, the Federal Reserve's stated dual mandate prioritizes maximum employment, and its policy trajectory through 2025 will be a major determinant of the 2026 economic landscape. Markets are likely betting that by February 2026, any inflationary pressures will have been managed without triggering a deep labor market contraction.
The odds could shift significantly if leading economic indicators through late 2025 point toward a sharp downturn. Key data to watch will be GDP growth, consumer spending, and business investment trends in the preceding quarters. A sustained inversion of the yield curve or a spike in initial jobless claims would be red flags. The market's 94% probability also leaves little room for error, meaning any early 2026 data suggesting economic weakness could cause a rapid repricing. The official jobs report for January 2026, released just weeks before this market resolves, will be a critical final catalyst. An unexpectedly weak January report could see this contract's price fall from its current highs.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on the February 2026 non-farm payroll employment report, a key monthly economic indicator published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The market resolves based on whether the month-over-month increase in total non-farm payroll employment exceeds a specified threshold X when the BLS releases its Monthly Employment Situation Report for February 2026. This report represents the most comprehensive official measurement of U.S. job creation, derived from surveys of approximately 122,000 businesses and government agencies covering about 666,000 individual worksites. The data release, typically occurring on the first Friday of the following month, provides critical insights into labor market health, influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions, financial markets, and political discourse. Interest in this specific forward-looking indicator stems from its role in forecasting economic trajectories, with labor market strength being a primary determinant of consumer spending power and overall economic growth. Analysts monitor this data point within the context of broader economic cycles, demographic shifts, and potential structural changes in the post-pandemic labor market. The precision of the prediction market mechanism, which ties resolution to the official BLS statistical release at 8:30 AM ET, creates a focused instrument for assessing collective expectations about future labor market conditions.
The U.S. non-farm payroll series has been published monthly since 1939, providing one of the longest-running consistent measures of American economic activity. The modern benchmark revision process was formalized in the 1970s, ensuring annual reconciliation with more comprehensive unemployment insurance tax records. Historically, the average monthly job gain has varied significantly across economic cycles, from the 200,000+ monthly averages during the 1990s expansion to net job losses during recessions like the 2008 financial crisis, when monthly declines exceeded 700,000 jobs at the downturn's depth. The COVID-19 pandemic created unprecedented volatility, with April 2020 showing a loss of 20.5 million jobs followed by historically strong rebounds exceeding 900,000 jobs monthly during 2021. The February report holds particular interest as it represents the first comprehensive labor market snapshot of each calendar year that incorporates annual benchmark revisions, which historically adjust previous years' estimates by an average of plus or minus 0.2%. Past February reports have sometimes shown weather-related distortions, though the BLS attempts to seasonally adjust for typical winter employment patterns. The transition from goods-producing to service-sector employment dominance has been a multi-decade trend reflected in these reports, with healthcare and professional services consistently showing growth even during economic slowdowns.
The February 2026 jobs number matters because employment growth directly affects household incomes, consumer confidence, and overall economic vitality. Strong job creation typically supports increased consumer spending, which drives approximately 70% of U.S. economic activity, while weak employment growth can signal economic vulnerability. These figures influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, with implications for mortgage rates, business investment costs, and financial market valuations across asset classes. Politically, employment trends near the 2026 midterm elections could affect electoral outcomes, as voters historically weigh economic conditions when evaluating incumbent performance. The specific threshold X in this prediction market represents a collective judgment about whether job growth will meet, exceed, or fall short of economic expectations, providing insight into market sentiment about future economic strength. Beyond immediate market reactions, sustained employment trends affect long-term fiscal policy through tax revenue generation and social program demands, making accurate labor market assessment crucial for government budgeting and economic planning.
As of late 2024, the U.S. labor market has shown remarkable resilience despite Federal Reserve interest rate increases designed to combat inflation. Monthly job gains have moderated from the exceptionally high levels seen during the 2021-2022 recovery period but remain above what many economists consider sustainable long-term levels. The unemployment rate has remained below 4% for extended periods, indicating tight labor market conditions. Demographic challenges including an aging workforce and declining birth rates suggest structural headwinds for labor force growth heading toward 2026. Technological advancements in artificial intelligence and automation are beginning to affect certain occupational categories, though the net impact on employment levels remains uncertain. Most economic forecasts project gradually slowing job growth through 2025-2026 as the economy potentially returns to more normal expansion patterns following the post-pandemic volatility.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics typically releases the Employment Situation Report at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on the first Friday of March 2026. This prediction market specifically closes at 8:29 AM ET, one minute before the official data release, to resolve based on the actual BLS announcement.
The BLS surveys approximately 122,000 businesses and government agencies each month, representing about 666,000 individual worksites. The survey covers all non-agricultural wage and salary workers, with data adjusted for seasonal variations and later benchmarked against comprehensive unemployment insurance tax records.
Economists generally consider 100,000-150,000 monthly job gains sufficient to accommodate population growth and maintain stable unemployment. Numbers consistently above 200,000 suggest above-trend economic strength, while figures below 100,000 may indicate economic slowing, though context including labor force participation matters.
Initial estimates have a 90% confidence interval of approximately ±110,000 jobs and are revised in the following two months as more survey responses arrive. Annual benchmark revisions typically adjust levels by 0.1-0.3%, meaning the February 2026 figure will undergo several revisions before being considered final.
Agricultural employment exhibits extreme seasonal volatility and represents less than 2% of total U.S. employment. Excluding this sector creates a more stable series that better reflects underlying economic trends in the dominant non-agricultural sectors that drive the modern U.S. economy.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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13 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will above -25000 jobs be added in February 2026? | Kalshi | 94% |
Will above 0 jobs be added in February 2026? | Kalshi | 88% |
Will above 10000 jobs be added in February 2026? | Kalshi | 83% |
Will above 20000 jobs be added in February 2026? | Kalshi | 77% |
Will above 30000 jobs be added in February 2026? | Kalshi | 71% |
Will above 40000 jobs be added in February 2026? | Kalshi | 62% |
Will above 50000 jobs be added in February 2026? | Kalshi | 53% |
Will above 60000 jobs be added in February 2026? | Kalshi | 49% |
Will above 70000 jobs be added in February 2026? | Kalshi | 43% |
Will above 80000 jobs be added in February 2026? | Kalshi | 36% |
Will above 90000 jobs be added in February 2026? | Kalshi | 31% |
Will above 100000 jobs be added in February 2026? | Kalshi | 25% |
Will above 125000 jobs be added in February 2026? | Kalshi | 16% |
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