Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?

Name: Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$23.19K

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Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?

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Polymarket

markets · $23.19K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $23.19K

100%

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1 market tracked

Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?	Poly	9%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$23.19K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish o

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (75 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. 

For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish o

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the posit"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $23.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.9K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 12.15)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $23.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

74d 8h remaining

Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

9¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/j74L3t" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?"></iframe>

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Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?

Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?

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Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)