Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US Treasury cash balance on October 9, 2026

Total Volume

$2.31K

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US Treasury cash balance on October 9, 2026

Vol

$2.31K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.31K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.31K

100%

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11 markets tracked

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $800 billion?

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Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $800 billion?	Kalshi	97%
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $775 billion?	Kalshi	97%
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $825 billion?	Kalshi	95%
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $850 billion?	Kalshi	88%
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $875 billion?	Kalshi	72%
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $900 billion?	Kalshi	21%
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $925 billion?	Kalshi	9%
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $950 billion?	Kalshi	4%
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $975 billion?	Kalshi	3%
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $1,025 billion?	Kalshi	3%
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $1,000 billion?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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97%

Top Probability

$2.31K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

October 9, 2026 If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 is above X billion, then the market resolves to Yes. This market uses the “Treasury General Account, TGA, Closing Balance” in the “Today” column of Table I — Operating Cash Balance in the Daily Treasury Statement for October 9, 2026. The published amount, reported in millions of U.S. dollars, is divided by 1,000 to express the balance in billions of U.S. dollars. No additional rounding is applied. The first publ

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US Treasury cash balance on October 9, 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** October 9, 2026

If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 is above X billion, then the market resolves to Yes. This market uses the “Treasury General Account, TGA, Closing Balance” in the “Today” column of Table I — Operating Cash Balance in the Daily Treasury Statement for October 9, 2026. The published amount, reported in millions of U.S. dollars, is divided by 1,000 to express the balance in billions of U.S. dollars. No additional rounding is applied. The first publ

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 is above $975 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the “Treasury General Account (TGA) Closing Balance” in the “Today” column of Table I — Operating Cash Balance in the Daily Treasury Statement"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $975 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $950 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $414
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $925 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $342
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $900 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $320
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $875 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $844
  DATA: [Yes: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $850 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $334
  DATA: [Yes: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $825 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $57
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $800 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $775 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $1,025 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $1,000 billion?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US Treasury cash balance on October 9, 2026

Volume$2.31K

Markets11

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KALSHI

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $800 billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.0¢No 3.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $800 billion?

If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 is above $800 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the “Treasury General Account (TGA) Closing Balance” in the “Today” column of Table I — Operating Cash Balance in the Daily Treasury Statement

KALSHI

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $775 billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.0¢No 3.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $775 billion?

If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 is above $775 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the “Treasury General Account (TGA) Closing Balance” in the “Today” column of Table I — Operating Cash Balance in the Daily Treasury Statement

KALSHI

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $825 billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.0¢No 5.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $825 billion?

If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 is above $825 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the “Treasury General Account (TGA) Closing Balance” in the “Today” column of Table I — Operating Cash Balance in the Daily Treasury Statement

KALSHI

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $850 billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.0¢No 12.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $850 billion?

If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 is above $850 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the “Treasury General Account (TGA) Closing Balance” in the “Today” column of Table I — Operating Cash Balance in the Daily Treasury Statement

KALSHI

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $875 billion?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 71.5¢No 28.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $875 billion?

If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 is above $875 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the “Treasury General Account (TGA) Closing Balance” in the “Today” column of Table I — Operating Cash Balance in the Daily Treasury Statement

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US Treasury cash balance on October 9, 2026

US Treasury cash balance on October 9, 2026

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Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $800 billion?

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Events (1)

US Treasury cash balance on October 9, 2026

Markets (11)

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $800 billion?

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $800 billion?

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $775 billion?

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $775 billion?

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $825 billion?

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $825 billion?

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $850 billion?

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $850 billion?

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $875 billion?

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $875 billion?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $800 billion?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US Treasury cash balance on October 9, 2026

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $800 billion?

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $800 billion?

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $775 billion?

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $775 billion?

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $825 billion?

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $825 billion?

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $850 billion?

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $850 billion?

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $875 billion?

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 9, 2026 be above $875 billion?

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