Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Peak wind gust in the world's windiest city in October

Name: Peak wind gust in the world's windiest city in October
End: 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.87K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Peak wind gust in the world's windiest city in October

Vol

$2.87K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.87K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.87K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 86 to 95 km/h in October?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 86 to 95 km/h in October?	Poly	34%
Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 96 km/h or above in October?	Poly	26%
Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 85 km/h or below in October?	Poly	13%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

34%

Top Probability

$2.87K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the wind-gust range that contains the maximum wind gust, in km/h, recorded in any routine (METAR) or special (SPECI) observation from Wellington Airport (ICAO: NZWN) between October 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Wellington, New Zealand is widely recognized as the world's windiest city, and its airport regularly records powerful gusts that make headlines and viral landing videos worldwide. The resolution source for this market is the gust value

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Peak wind gust in the world's windiest city in October
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 1, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to the wind-gust range that contains the maximum wind gust, in km/h, recorded in any routine (METAR) or special (SPECI) observation from Wellington Airport (ICAO: NZWN) between October 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Wellington, New Zealand is widely recognized as the world's windiest city, and its airport regularly records powerful gusts that make headlines and viral landing videos worldwide.

The resolution source for this market is the gust value

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the wind-gust range that contains the maximum wind gust, in km/h, recorded in any routine (METAR) or special (SPECI) observation from Wellington Airport (ICAO: NZWN) between October 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Wellington, New Zealand is widely re"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $801
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.58)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 85 km/h or below in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 86 to 95 km/h in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 96 km/h or above in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $424
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate