Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?

Name: Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$6.90K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?

Vol

$6.90K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $6.90K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.90K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?	Poly	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$6.90K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026, with a second round on November 1, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than half of the valid votes in the first round, or if a candidate secures more than half of the valid votes but voter turnout is not more than half of registered voters. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (82 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026, with a second round on November 1, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than half of the valid votes in the first round, or if a candidate secures more than half of the valid votes but voter turnout is not more than half of registered voters.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If t

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $31.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.22)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $6.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld