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Will SpaceX launch another Starship by May 31, 2026? | Kalshi | 85% |
Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Apr 30, 2026? | Kalshi | 5% |
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SpaceX Starship (12th launch) If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 12 before X 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns whether SpaceX will conduct the 12th integrated flight test of its Starship launch vehicle before January 1, 2026. Starship is a fully reusable, super-heavy-lift launch system under development by SpaceX, intended for missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. The market resolves based on the occurrence of the launch event itself, with specific provisions for potential delays in official data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the primary U.S. regulator for commercial spaceflight. The FAA's licensing process, which includes reviewing safety and environmental data, directly influences the launch schedule. People are interested in this market because it tracks a critical milestone in one of the most ambitious and closely watched aerospace programs in history. The pace of Starship testing is a key indicator of SpaceX's progress toward operational capability, which has implications for NASA's Artemis moon missions, Starlink satellite deployments, and the broader commercial space industry. Each flight test provides data on vehicle performance, reusability, and rapid turnaround, concepts central to SpaceX's long-term vision of reducing space access costs.
The Starship development program began in earnest around 2019 with the construction and testing of early prototypes like Starhopper. The first high-altitude flight test of a Starship prototype (SN8) occurred in December 2020, ending in a crash landing. This began a series of iterative test flights from Boca Chica, each designed to gather specific data on aerodynamics, engine performance, and landing procedures. The first integrated flight test of a full Starship stack (Booster 7 and Ship 24) took place on April 20, 2023. The vehicle experienced multiple engine failures and failed to stage, leading to a commanded flight termination. The FAA required a mishap investigation before licensing the next launch. The second integrated flight (IFT-2) occurred on November 18, 2023. It achieved stage separation but lost both the booster and ship shortly after. A third test (IFT-3) launched on March 14, 2024, achieving several objectives including a full-duration burn of the Raptor engines in space and a propellant transfer demonstration, though both vehicles were lost during re-entry. The fourth flight (IFT-4) on June 6, 2024, was the most successful to date, with both the Super Heavy booster and Starship spacecraft achieving soft splashdowns in targeted ocean areas. This pattern of rapid, iterative testing, with flights often separated by several months for analysis and hardware upgrades, establishes the precedent for the cadence leading to a potential 12th launch.
The successful and frequent launch of Starship represents a potential transformation of space economics. As a fully reusable system designed for high flight rates, Starship aims to reduce the cost of delivering mass to orbit by orders of magnitude. This would enable new classes of missions, from large-scale space telescopes and orbital manufacturing to the deployment of tens of thousands of next-generation Starlink satellites for global internet coverage. For the United States, Starship's success is tied to national prestige and strategic goals in space. NASA's plan to land astronauts on the Moon in the Artemis program depends on a version of Starship being ready and reliable. Delays or failures in the test program could push back American lunar ambitions and cede leadership in human deep space exploration to competitors like China. The program also affects the local environment and economy around Boca Chica, Texas, and the global commercial launch market, where SpaceX currently holds a dominant position that Starship could cement for decades.
As of late 2024, SpaceX is preparing for the fifth integrated flight test (IFT-5) of Starship. The company is implementing lessons learned from IFT-4, which included the first successful soft landing simulations for both stages. Primary objectives for upcoming flights include demonstrating the recovery and reuse of a Super Heavy booster via a catch attempt on the launch tower and achieving a controlled re-entry and landing of the Starship spacecraft. SpaceX has begun constructing additional launch infrastructure at Cape Canaveral, Florida, which could eventually support a second Starship launch cadence. The FAA's licensing process for IFT-5 is underway, with the key factor being how quickly the agency reviews SpaceX's final report on the IFT-4 outcomes and any new safety data.
SpaceX uses an iterative development model where success is defined by gathering specific engineering data, not necessarily completing every planned milestone. For early flights, clearing the launch pad safely and testing new systems like hot-staging were primary goals. Later flights aim for booster recovery and ship re-entry.
U.S. law mandates that the FAA ensure commercial launches do not harm public health, safety, or property. The FAA reviews SpaceX's flight safety analysis, accident investigation findings from prior missions, and compliance with environmental regulations before issuing a license for each launch.
Elon Musk has stated SpaceX will fly Starship hundreds of times without crew before putting astronauts on board. NASA, as a customer, will require an extensive unmanned demonstration mission of the lunar lander variant before it is approved for a crewed Artemis moon landing.
The primary development, manufacturing, and launch site is Starbase, located in Boca Chica, Texas. Major components are also built at a factory in Cocoa, Florida. SpaceX is developing a second launch complex for Starship at Launch Complex 39A at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida.
In current test flights, both stages are directed to splash down in the Gulf of Mexico (booster) and the Indian Ocean (spacecraft). The ultimate goal is for the booster to return to the launch site to be caught by the launch tower arms, and for the spacecraft to land back on Earth or on other planetary surfaces.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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