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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Who will enter Iran by June 30?

Name: Who will enter Iran by June 30?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$371.66K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Who will enter Iran by June 30?

Vol

$371.66K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $371.66K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $371.66K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?	Poly	7%
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?	Poly	5%
Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	Poly	3%
Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?	Poly	2%
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?	Poly	2%
Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?	Poly	2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?	Poly	1%
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$371.66K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. Hou

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, August 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will enter Iran by June 30?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

For markets referring to “any U.S. Hou

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. W"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $371.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $113.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.27)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $42.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $91.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.1% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $80.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $28.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $27.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $20.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $66.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $15.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics