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This event is for the upcoming Eredivisie game, scheduled for Saturday, January 17, 2026 between PEC Zwolle and AZ.
Prediction markets currently price an AZ victory at 64%. This indicates a clear but cautious favorite, with the market viewing an away win as substantially more likely than a draw or PEC Zwolle upset. With the "Yes" share trading at 64¢, the implied probability suggests AZ has nearly two-to-one odds in their favor. However, the extremely thin trading volume, showing $0K across three markets, means this price is highly illiquid and may not fully reflect informed consensus.
The pricing aligns with the fundamental disparity between the two clubs. AZ Alkmaar is a perennial European competition contender in the Eredivisie, consistently finishing in the top half of the table with superior talent and resources. PEC Zwolle, in contrast, is a mid-table or relegation-battling side that typically struggles against the league's elite. Historically, AZ has dominated this fixture, winning the majority of recent encounters. The market is essentially pricing in AZ's stronger squad quality, better form over the season, and historical performance advantage, even in an away fixture.
Given the low liquidity, any significant pre-match news could cause sharp price volatility. A key injury or suspension for AZ, especially to a major attacking player, could see the probability drop toward 50%. Conversely, confirmation of a fully fit AZ squad or a reported injury crisis for PEC Zwolle could push the "Yes" share above 70%. The market will be most sensitive to the official team sheets released shortly before the January 17 kickoff. In a market this thin, even a modest-sized bet could swing the quoted probability by 10 percentage points or more.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the upcoming Eredivisie football match between PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar, scheduled for Saturday, January 17, 2026. The Eredivisie is the top professional football division in the Netherlands, and this fixture represents a league encounter between a club with a history of battling relegation and one with consistent European ambitions. The match outcome will influence both teams' positions in the league table, affecting their seasonal objectives, from European qualification to top-flight survival. Prediction markets allow participants to speculate on the result, the goal margin, or other match-related events, turning the sporting contest into a tradable financial instrument based on collective intelligence about team form, injuries, and tactical setups. Interest in this specific fixture stems from the contrasting profiles of the two clubs. PEC Zwolle, based in the city of Zwolle in the province of Overijssel, has historically operated as a mid-table or relegation-threatened side, known for its passionate fanbase at the MAC³PARK stadium. AZ Alkmaar, from the North Holland city of Alkmaar, is a perennial contender for European spots, boasting a renowned youth academy and a more substantial financial footing. Their encounters often highlight a clash of styles and resources, making the match unpredictable and appealing for analysts and bettors alike. Recent developments leading into the 2025/2026 season will shape market sentiment. This includes summer 2025 transfer activity, preseason results, managerial strategies, and early-season form in the months preceding January 2026. Injuries to key players or shifts in tactical philosophy reported in the Dutch sports press will be critical data points for market participants. The winter timing of the match, following the traditional winter break in Dutch football, adds another layer of complexity, as teams return from a training period that can reset form lines.
The rivalry between PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar is not a classic Dutch derby but represents a recurring league fixture with a clear historical power imbalance. AZ has traditionally been the dominant force, a reflection of its more consistent presence in the top half of the Eredivisie and regular European football since the early 2000s. PEC Zwolle, founded in 1910, has experienced multiple promotions and relegations, with its most successful modern period being a KNVB Cup win in 2014 and subsequent Europa League participation. Head-to-head records heavily favor AZ. In the decade leading up to 2025, AZ lost only once in league play to Zwolle. A notable recent upset occurred on December 10, 2022, when PEC Zwolle, then in the Eerste Divisie, defeated AZ 1-0 in the KNVB Cup. However, in the Eredivisie, AZ's superior technical quality usually prevails. The matches in Alkmaar at the AFAS Stadium are often more one-sided, while fixtures at Zwolle's MAC³PARK stadium can be tighter, with the home crowd providing a significant boost. The historical context is one of a aspirational club (AZ) versus a resilient one (Zwolle), where any points gained by Zwolle are considered a significant achievement.
Beyond the three points at stake, this match has broader significance for the Eredivisie ecosystem. For AZ, dropping points against a team like Zwolle can be costly in the intense race for Champions League or Europa Conference League qualification, where goal difference and head-to-head records can be decisive. Failure to win can impact club revenue, player morale, and the perception of the team's progress under Pascal Jansen. For PEC Zwolle, a positive result against a top-four side provides a massive confidence boost, valuable points towards securing another season of Eredivisie football, and can energize the local community and commercial sponsors. Financially, each league position is worth approximately 300,000 to 500,000 euros in merit payments from the Eredivisie's central funds. Furthermore, strong performances against elite teams can increase the market value of Zwolle's players, aiding the club's sustainable model of developing and selling talent. The match outcome also feeds into the narrative of competitive balance in the league, testing whether the financial gap between clubs can be bridged by tactics and determination.
As of the latest information preceding the 2025/2026 season, both clubs are preparing for their summer transfer and preseason activities. The exact squad compositions for the January 2026 match will be determined by the business conducted in the summer 2025 transfer window and any moves in the winter 2026 window. Managerial positions are stable, with both Johnny Jansen and Pascal Jansen expected to remain in charge. The most recent competitive meeting between the sides likely occurred in the 2024/2025 Eredivisie season, the result of which will form a key part of the recent historical data used by prediction market participants. All analysis is therefore provisional, awaiting the unfolding of the first half of the 2025/2026 season.
The exact kick-off time for Eredivisie matches is typically confirmed by the league several weeks in advance. It is likely to be scheduled for either 16:30 or 20:00 local time (CET) on Saturday, January 17, 2026. Fans should check the official Eredivisie website or club channels closer to the date for confirmation.
In the Netherlands, Eredivisie broadcast rights are held by ESPN. Internationally, broadcasting partners vary by country, with services like Viaplay, DAZN, or ESPN+ commonly holding rights. Viewers should consult their local sports broadcasting listings for the 2025/2026 season.
Historically, AZ Alkmaar has a dominant record against PEC Zwolle. In their last 20 Eredivisie meetings prior to 2025, AZ has won approximately 14, with Zwolle winning only 2 and 4 matches drawn. AZ also holds a significant advantage in goals scored in these fixtures.
Based on historical performance, squad quality, and league standing, AZ Alkmaar will be the strong favorite to win the match. Prediction markets and sportsbooks will reflect this, offering shorter odds on an AZ victory compared to a Zwolle win or a draw.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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3 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 63% |
| Poly | 21% |
| Poly | 17% |
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