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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports
AHL: Bridgeport Islanders vs. Hartford Wolf Pack
Total Volume
$189.43
Events
1
Markets
1
AHL: Bridgeport Islanders vs. Hartford Wolf Pack
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $189.43
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $189.43
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
AHL: Bridgeport Islanders vs. Hartford Wolf Pack
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 100% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
100%
Top Probability
$189.43
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
In the upcoming AHL game, scheduled for January 30 at 7:00PM ET: If Bridgeport Islanders win, the market will resolve to "Bridgeport Islanders". If Hartford Wolf Pack win, the market will resolve to "Hartford Wolf Pack". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts.
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets currently give the Springfield Thunderbirds a 70% chance to win this AHL game. This means traders collectively believe Springfield has roughly a 7 in 10 chance of victory. The Bridgeport Islanders are seen as the clear underdogs, with about a 3 in 10 chance. This isn't a toss-up. The market expresses a clear, though not overwhelming, confidence in a Thunderbirds win.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
Two main factors are likely driving these odds. First, the teams' positions in the Atlantic Division standings matter. The Springfield Thunderbirds are typically a stronger team competing for a playoff spot, while the Bridgeport Islanders have struggled near the bottom of the division this season. Past performance heavily influences expectations.
Second, the location of the game is important. This game is being played in Springfield, Massachusetts, giving the Thunderbirds home-ice advantage. In hockey, playing at home provides the last line change for matchups and generally boosts a team's performance. Combining Springfield's stronger record with this home game creates a logical case for their status as favorites.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The key event is the game itself, which starts at 7:05 PM ET on February 20. The only outcome that will shift the prediction now is the final score. Traders will be watching for any last-minute roster news, like a key player being a late scratch due to injury or an unexpected call-up to the NHL parent clubs (the St. Louis Blues for Springfield and the New York Islanders for Bridgeport). Such news could cause the probabilities to adjust right up until the puck drops.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
For regular-season professional sports games, prediction markets are often quite accurate. They aggregate many opinions and continuously update with new information. However, they are not perfect. Upsets happen in sports every night. The 30% chance given to Bridgeport acknowledges that possibility. These markets are best viewed as a sophisticated consensus, not a guarantee. In this case, the consensus is fairly strong, suggesting a Springfield win is the expected, but not certain, outcome.
Current Market Outlook
The Polymarket contract for this AHL matchup shows the Bridgeport Islanders priced at 62¢, implying a 62% probability of victory. The Springfield Thunderbirds are priced at 38¢, a 38% chance. This pricing indicates the market views Bridgeport as a clear, though not overwhelming, favorite. With only $2,000 in total trading volume, liquidity is extremely thin. This low volume means the current odds are more susceptible to being skewed by a few large bets and may not reflect a deep consensus.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The Islanders' favoritism likely stems from their recent form and head-to-head performance. Bridgeport entered this game having won three of their last five contests. More directly, they had defeated the Thunderbirds in two of their three previous meetings this season. Springfield, conversely, was struggling, posting a 3-7-0 record in their last ten games before this matchup. Home-ice advantage is also a factor, as this game was scheduled for Bridgeport's Total Mortgage Arena. Historical data shows home teams in the AHL win roughly 55% of the time, so Bridgeport's 62% price builds a premium on top of that baseline for their specific competitive edge.
What Could Change These Odds
In a market with such thin liquidity, the odds are highly volatile and can change with minimal new money. A single $500 bet could shift the implied probability by several percentage points. The primary risk to the consensus is the unpredictable nature of minor league hockey, where roster changes are frequent due to NHL call-ups and injuries. A last-minute scratch of a Bridgeport top scorer or the announcement that a key Thunderbirds player was returning from injury would immediately impact the betting line. Without the depth of betting seen in major sports, this market acts more as a sentiment indicator than a efficiently priced forecast.
Cross-Platform Analysis
This event is trading exclusively on Polymarket. No comparable market exists on Kalshi, eliminating any opportunity for cross-platform arbitrage analysis. The isolated, low-volume nature of this contract means its price is determined solely by the small pool of participants on Polymarket interested in AHL hockey speculation.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.