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Which agencies will Trump eliminate?

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Which agencies will Trump eliminate?

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4 markets tracked

Will USAID be eliminated?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will USAID be eliminated?	Kalshi	31%
Will EPA be eliminated?	Kalshi	9%
Will IRS be eliminated?	Kalshi	5%
Will NASA be eliminated?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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31%

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$0.00

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About This Event

During Trump's term If X is eliminated before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Eliminating all funding also satisfies the Payout Criterion, as does merging its authorities with another agency, though merely altering its authorities without changing its name, or other alterations is not sufficient to be encompassed. Clarification, 3/3/26: While the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026 reflects the reorganization of USAID functions into the State Department, it continues to appropr

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which agencies will Trump eliminate?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** During Trump's term

If X is eliminated before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Eliminating all funding also satisfies the Payout Criterion, as does merging its authorities with another agency, though merely altering its authorities without changing its name, or other alterations is not sufficient to be encompassed. Clarification, 3/3/26: While the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026 reflects the reorganization of USAID functions into the State Department, it continues to appropr

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If NASA is eliminated before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Eliminating all funding also satisfies the Payout Criterion, as does merging its authorities with another agency, though merely altering its authorities without changing its name, or other alterations is not"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will NASA be eliminated?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will IRS be eliminated?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will EPA be eliminated?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will USAID be eliminated?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Which agencies will Trump eliminate?

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KALSHI

Will USAID be eliminated?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 31.0¢No 69.0¢

KALSHITech

Will USAID be eliminated?

If USAID is eliminated before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Eliminating all funding also satisfies the Payout Criterion, as does merging its authorities with another agency, though merely altering its authorities without changing its name, or other alterations is no

KALSHI

Will EPA be eliminated?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.4¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will EPA be eliminated?

If EPA is eliminated before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Eliminating all funding also satisfies the Payout Criterion, as does merging its authorities with another agency, though merely altering its authorities without changing its name, or other alterations is not

KALSHI

Will IRS be eliminated?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.8¢No 95.2¢

KALSHIOther

Will IRS be eliminated?

If IRS is eliminated before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Eliminating all funding also satisfies the Payout Criterion, as does merging its authorities with another agency, though merely altering its authorities without changing its name, or other alterations is not

KALSHI

Will NASA be eliminated?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.4¢No 96.6¢

KALSHIScience

Will NASA be eliminated?

If NASA is eliminated before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Eliminating all funding also satisfies the Payout Criterion, as does merging its authorities with another agency, though merely altering its authorities without changing its name, or other alterations is not

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/jRIT_b" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Which agencies will Trump eliminate?"></iframe>

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Which agencies will Trump eliminate?

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Will USAID be eliminated?

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Events (1)

Which agencies will Trump eliminate?

Markets (4)

Will USAID be eliminated?

Will USAID be eliminated?

Will EPA be eliminated?

Will EPA be eliminated?

Will IRS be eliminated?

Will IRS be eliminated?

Will NASA be eliminated?

Will NASA be eliminated?

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Will USAID be eliminated?

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Which agencies will Trump eliminate?

Will USAID be eliminated?

Will USAID be eliminated?

Will EPA be eliminated?

Will EPA be eliminated?

Will IRS be eliminated?

Will IRS be eliminated?

Will NASA be eliminated?

Will NASA be eliminated?

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