$105.23K
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$105.23K
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During Trump's term If X is eliminated before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently price a 56% probability that the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) will be eliminated before January 20, 2029. This slim majority indicates the market sees the possibility as slightly more likely than not, but remains highly uncertain. This price is derived from the leading market among a set of four tracking potential agency eliminations under a potential second Trump term, which have collectively seen $105,000 in trading volume, suggesting moderate but meaningful liquidity for this political speculation.
The primary factor is former President Trump's documented skepticism of foreign aid and multilateral institutions, coupled with his administration's past proposals to significantly reorganize the federal government. During his first term, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) produced plans that suggested merging USAID into the State Department, a move long favored by some conservative policymakers seeking to reduce duplication and prioritize a more transactional, "America First" foreign policy.
Secondly, the market is likely pricing in the potential for a more streamlined and aggressive executive approach during a hypothetical second term, where political appointees aligned with this vision could face less internal resistance. The 56% price reflects a balance between this ideological predisposition and the practical political and bureaucratic hurdles that have historically prevented such a major restructuring.
The key catalyst will be the release of detailed policy platforms and personnel announcements from the Trump campaign in late 2024. Explicit mention of plans to consolidate or eliminate USAID would cause the "Yes" probability to surge. Conversely, a lack of specific proposals or signals that the idea is not a priority would likely drive the price down.
Congressional pushback is a major risk to the consensus view. While the executive branch has significant reorganization authority, major changes often require congressional consultation and can be thwarted by bipartisan support for the agency's mission, especially on global health and humanitarian aid. Strong opposition from key Senate committee chairs could quickly make elimination seem less feasible, lowering the current odds.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic addresses which federal agencies might be eliminated during Donald Trump's potential second presidential term, which would run from January 20, 2025, to January 20, 2029. The market specifically resolves to 'Yes' for an agency if it is formally eliminated before the end of that term. The topic stems from former President Trump's public statements and policy proposals, particularly his 2024 campaign pledge to 'dismantle the deep state' by closing specific federal departments and agencies. This includes explicit calls to eliminate entities like the Department of Education and the Environmental Protection Agency, reframing them as part of a broader agenda to reduce the size and scope of the federal government. The interest in this market reflects significant political and budgetary implications, as the elimination of a cabinet-level department or major independent agency would require congressional action and represent one of the most substantial reorganizations of the federal government in decades. It engages observers of presidential power, administrative law, and the practical challenges of implementing such sweeping campaign rhetoric.
The concept of eliminating federal agencies has historical precedent, though successful abolition of a cabinet-level department is rare. The most recent example was the dissolution of the U.S. Post Office Department in 1971, which was reorganized into the independent U.S. Postal Service. More recently, Congress voted to eliminate the Interstate Commerce Commission in 1995, transferring its remaining functions to the newly created Surface Transportation Board. The Trump administration's first term saw significant efforts to reduce agency influence short of elimination. In 2017, President Trump signed Executive Order 13781, titled 'Comprehensive Plan for Reorganizing the Executive Branch,' which directed OMB to propose plans to eliminate or merge agencies. This led to proposals, like merging the Department of Education with the Department of Labor, which gained little traction in Congress. The Trump administration also successfully relocated agency headquarters, such as moving parts of the Bureau of Land Management and the Economic Research Service out of Washington, D.C., a tactic seen as a form of bureaucratic weakening. These past actions provide a template for how a second-term administration might approach more drastic measures, learning from the legislative and legal hurdles encountered between 2017 and 2021.
The elimination of a federal agency would have profound and cascading consequences. Economically, it would disrupt billions of dollars in federal contracts, grants, and assistance programs. For instance, abolishing the Department of Education would directly impact the distribution of over $70 billion in annual federal student aid, affecting millions of college students and the institutions they attend. It would also terminate programs for K-12 education, special education, and civil rights enforcement in schools, shifting those responsibilities and costs to states with vastly different capacities to assume them. Politically and socially, agency elimination represents a fundamental shift in the federal government's role. It would be the most tangible realization of a small-government conservative ideology in a generation, affecting regulatory frameworks for the environment, consumer protection, and workplace safety. The process would likely trigger intense legal battles over statutory responsibilities, the status of civil service employees, and the president's authority versus congressional intent. Downstream, it could create regulatory uncertainty for industries and alter the delivery of essential public services, from disaster response coordinated by FEMA to food safety inspections conducted by agencies within the USDA.
As of late 2024, Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for the November presidential election. His campaign has reiterated broad themes of dismantling the administrative state but has not released detailed legislative proposals for agency elimination since the 2023 campaign video targeting the Department of Education. The most concrete and detailed plans exist outside the formal campaign in the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025. The political feasibility of these plans hinges entirely on the outcome of the 2024 elections, specifically which party controls the White House and Congress in January 2025. Congressional Republicans have held hearings on 'breaking up' agencies like the FBI and have proposed bills to abolish the Department of Education, but no such legislation has advanced in the Democratic-controlled Senate.
No, the President cannot unilaterally abolish a cabinet-level department or an agency established by an act of Congress. Elimination requires Congress to pass a law repealing the statute that created the agency. A president can propose elimination in their budget, refuse to spend appropriated funds (though this is legally constrained), or use executive orders to reorganize functions within legal limits, but congressional action is mandatory for full dissolution.
Their fate would depend on the specific legislation passed. Employees could be transferred to other agencies that absorb their functions, offered buyouts or early retirement, or subjected to a Reduction in Force (RIF), which is a complex process governed by civil service rules. Mass layoffs would likely face legal challenges from federal employee unions.
No sitting president has abolished an existing Cabinet department. The last Cabinet-level department to cease existence was the Post Office Department in 1971, but this was done through an act of Congress signed by President Nixon that transformed it into the independent U.S. Postal Service, a government corporation.
Project 2025 is a presidential transition project led by the Heritage Foundation. Its 'Mandate for Leadership' handbook provides detailed policy proposals for a conservative administration, including plans to dismantle the Department of Education, drastically restructure the Department of Justice and the FBI, and hollow out the EPA. It is considered a key blueprint for a potential second Trump term.
Based on his public statements and allied policy documents, the Department of Education and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are the most frequently cited targets. The Department of Energy has also been mentioned in the past for restructuring. The feasibility of eliminating any depends on congressional support.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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4 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will USAID be eliminated? | Kalshi | 57% |
Will IRS be eliminated? | Kalshi | 15% |
Will EPA be eliminated? | Kalshi | 11% |
Will NASA be eliminated? | Kalshi | 4% |
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