Highest temperature in Amsterdam on October 21?
PM $45.82
1
11
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on October 21?
PM $45.82
1
11
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $45.82
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event is a set of temperature-range markets on Polymarket for the highest temperature in Amsterdam on October 21, 2026. Each market resolves on the highest reading recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, using the "Temp" column for all times that day, in whole degrees Celsius [1]. If NOAA data is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used instead. If neither source has data by then, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
The wording of the brackets matters. Most markets name a single degree, such as "be 13°C," but the highest and lowest brackets are open-ended: "17°C or higher" and "7°C or below" [1]. The listed end time for all 11 markets is 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z [1]. That is a listed close time, not the time of resolution. The provider notes that the market may resolve once the first data point for the following date is published, or by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, whichever comes first [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-19T06:00:06Z, and the evidence was retrieved at 2026-10-19T06:09:36Z [1]. They describe that moment only and are not live quotes.
The Yes prices, from highest to lowest, are: 13°C at 0.25, 12°C and 14°C at 0.245 each, 15°C at 0.175, 16°C at 0.115, 17°C or higher at 0.10, 11°C at 0.07, 10°C at 0.036, 8°C and 9°C at 0.021 each, and 7°C or below at 0.008 [1]. The Yes prices add up to 1.286, not 1. Because of this, the prices should not be read as a probability distribution. They are snapshot prices for separate contracts.
The sample covers all 11 saved markets for this event, and the provider reports no partial sample [1]. The source also states that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. Volume is not shown in the evidence, so it cannot indicate liquidity or the number of traders.
Differences in price between brackets should not be treated as arbitrage. They reflect the snapshot prices of separate contracts, not executable prices.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are. It also does not show the current price, whether the market has changed since the snapshot, or what the actual temperature will be. The provider states that the market may stay open for up to seven calendar days if the resolution source publishes clearly erroneous data, and that revisions are considered until the first data point for the following date is published [1].
References
- Polymarket: Highest temperature in Amsterdam on October 21?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a weather-based prediction market on the highest temperature recorded in Amsterdam on October 21, 2026. The contract is listed on Polymarket. It resolves to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 October 2026 [1]. The contract is therefore a question about a single day's observed maximum at one named station, not a general forecast for Amsterdam. The saved event contains 11 temperature brackets, running from a bracket for 7°C or below up to a bracket for 17°C or higher, with intermediate single-degree brackets between them [1]. Each bracket is its own yes or no contract. Because the brackets are separate contracts, the set describes the range of outcomes the event covers, and each price should be read on its own rather than as a ranking of likely results. The contract's wording sets out how the result will be determined. The NOAA reading used is the highest value under the "Temp" column for all times on the day, taken from the station's time series page [1]. The market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius, so readings are rounded to that precision for resolution [1]. The contract also allows for revisions. Changes to recorded temperatures are considered until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, after which later alterations are not considered [1]. The rules also describe fallback and error handling. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used instead [1]. If no data exists for the observation date by that same deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. If a published value is clearly erroneous because of technical or operational error, or because of unauthorized interference, the market may stay open for up to seven calendar days (ET) in anticipation of a corrected value, and Polymarket may issue a clarification if no correction appears [1]. The listed end time for the contract is 12:00 UTC on 21 October 2026 [1]. This is a contract closing time as written in the rules. It is not an announced event or a confirmed result, and the rules indicate that the market resolves once the first data point for the following date has been published or by the 11:59 PM ET deadline, whichever comes first [1].
Historical Context
Wikipedia's article on 2026 European heatwaves states that several severe heatwaves affected Europe starting in late May 2026, and that temperature records were broken in a number of countries, including the Netherlands [2]. The supplied material does not describe weather conditions in Amsterdam on or around October 21, 2026, and it does not connect those heatwaves to this specific contract. The Wikipedia entry on temperature was also retrieved, but its supplied text covers only the physical definition of temperature and does not bear on this market [3].
Why It Matters
The contract measures one number: the highest whole-degree Celsius reading that NOAA records for one station on one day [1]. Its value comes from how precisely it defines that measurement. The source, station, time window, rounding rule, revision cutoff, fallback source, and treatment of missing data all determine the resolved bracket [1]. Anyone reading the brackets should understand these rules first, because two readings that look similar can resolve differently if they come from different stations or are rounded differently. The bracket structure also shows that the market is about a range of outcomes rather than a single forecast number. Each bracket resolves on its own, so the contract tests whether the observed maximum falls inside one specific range [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Which weather data decides this market?
The primary source is NOAA's time series for Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, using the highest reading under the "Temp" column for the day [1]. The Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used only if NOAA data is unavailable by the stated deadline [1].
Why does the contract use whole degrees Celsius?
The rules say the resolution source measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius, so resolution uses that same level of precision [1].
What happens if no data is available for the observation date?
If there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
Can a recorded value be changed after it is published?
Revisions are considered until the first data point for the following date is published on the resolution source. After that, later alterations are not considered [1]. If a value is clearly erroneous because of technical or operational error, the market may remain open for up to seven calendar days (ET) for a correction [1].
Does a bracket price show how likely a temperature is?
A price shown for a bracket is a snapshot of market trading and is not a verified probability or an executable quote. The contract itself only defines how the market resolves [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on October 21?
PM $200.29
Highest temperature in Chongqing on October 21?
PM $95.02
Highest temperature in Madrid on October 21?
PM $62
Highest temperature in Shanghai on October 21?
PM $43.32
Highest temperature in Chengdu on October 21?
PM $7.5
Highest temperature in Wellington on October 21?
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
