GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

SOFR at end of Q4 2026

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SOFR at end of Q4 2026

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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8 markets tracked

Will SOFR be above 3.00 by end of Q4 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will SOFR be above 3.00 by end of Q4 2026?	Kalshi	97%
Will SOFR be above 3.25 by end of Q4 2026?	Kalshi	95%
Will SOFR be above 3.50 by end of Q4 2026?	Kalshi	90%
Will SOFR be above 3.75 by end of Q4 2026?	Kalshi	73%
Will SOFR be above 4.00 by end of Q4 2026?	Kalshi	48%
Will SOFR be above 4.25 by end of Q4 2026?	Kalshi	26%
Will SOFR be above 4.50 by end of Q4 2026?	Kalshi	14%
Will SOFR be above 4.75 by end of Q4 2026?	Kalshi	12%

AI Analysis

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About This Event

EOQ4 2026 If the first published SOFR value corresponding to the final U.S. business-day SOFR reference date for Q4 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** SOFR at end of Q4 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** EOQ4 2026

If the first published SOFR value corresponding to the final U.S. business-day SOFR reference date for Q4 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the first published SOFR value corresponding to the final U.S. business-day SOFR reference date for Q4 2026 is above 4.75%, then the market resolves to Yes."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will SOFR be above 4.75 by end of Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will SOFR be above 4.50 by end of Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will SOFR be above 4.25 by end of Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will SOFR be above 4.00 by end of Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will SOFR be above 3.75 by end of Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 72.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will SOFR be above 3.50 by end of Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will SOFR be above 3.25 by end of Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will SOFR be above 3.00 by end of Q4 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

SOFR at end of Q4 2026

EOQ4 2026 If the first published SOFR value corresponding to the final U.S. business-day SOFR reference date for Q4 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes.

Volume$0.00

Markets8

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KALSHI

Will SOFR be above 3.00 by end of Q4 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will SOFR be above 3.00 by end of Q4 2026?

If the first published SOFR value corresponding to the final U.S. business-day SOFR reference date for Q4 2026 is above 3.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will SOFR be above 3.25 by end of Q4 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will SOFR be above 3.25 by end of Q4 2026?

If the first published SOFR value corresponding to the final U.S. business-day SOFR reference date for Q4 2026 is above 3.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will SOFR be above 3.50 by end of Q4 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 89.5¢No 10.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will SOFR be above 3.50 by end of Q4 2026?

If the first published SOFR value corresponding to the final U.S. business-day SOFR reference date for Q4 2026 is above 3.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will SOFR be above 3.75 by end of Q4 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 72.5¢No 27.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will SOFR be above 3.75 by end of Q4 2026?

If the first published SOFR value corresponding to the final U.S. business-day SOFR reference date for Q4 2026 is above 3.75%, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will SOFR be above 4.00 by end of Q4 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 47.5¢No 52.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will SOFR be above 4.00 by end of Q4 2026?

If the first published SOFR value corresponding to the final U.S. business-day SOFR reference date for Q4 2026 is above 4.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.

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56¢

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SOFR at end of Q4 2026

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Will SOFR be above 3.00 by end of Q4 2026?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

SOFR at end of Q4 2026

Markets (8)

Will SOFR be above 3.00 by end of Q4 2026?

Will SOFR be above 3.00 by end of Q4 2026?

Will SOFR be above 3.25 by end of Q4 2026?

Will SOFR be above 3.25 by end of Q4 2026?

Will SOFR be above 3.50 by end of Q4 2026?

Will SOFR be above 3.50 by end of Q4 2026?

Will SOFR be above 3.75 by end of Q4 2026?

Will SOFR be above 3.75 by end of Q4 2026?

Will SOFR be above 4.00 by end of Q4 2026?

Will SOFR be above 4.00 by end of Q4 2026?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will SOFR be above 3.00 by end of Q4 2026?

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SOFR at end of Q4 2026

Will SOFR be above 3.00 by end of Q4 2026?

Will SOFR be above 3.00 by end of Q4 2026?

Will SOFR be above 3.25 by end of Q4 2026?

Will SOFR be above 3.25 by end of Q4 2026?

Will SOFR be above 3.50 by end of Q4 2026?

Will SOFR be above 3.50 by end of Q4 2026?

Will SOFR be above 3.75 by end of Q4 2026?

Will SOFR be above 3.75 by end of Q4 2026?

Will SOFR be above 4.00 by end of Q4 2026?

Will SOFR be above 4.00 by end of Q4 2026?

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