Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Who will win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election?

Total Volume

$1.88K

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Who will win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election?

Vol

$1.88K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.88K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.88K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?	Kalshi	81%
Will SP-Congress alliance win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?	Kalshi	18%
Will Bahujan Samaj Party win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

81%

Top Probability

$1.88K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

in 2027 If X wins the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market is elig

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2027

If X wins the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market is elig

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If SP-Congress alliance wins the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will SP-Congress alliance win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 21, 2028): Vol $55
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 21, 2028): Vol $608
  DATA: [Yes: 81.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Bahujan Samaj Party win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 21, 2028): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Who will win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election?

Volume$1.88K

Markets3

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KALSHI

Will Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 81.0¢No 19.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?

If Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA wins the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have

KALSHI

Will SP-Congress alliance win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.0¢No 82.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will SP-Congress alliance win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?

If SP-Congress alliance wins the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same

KALSHI

Will Bahujan Samaj Party win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Bahujan Samaj Party win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?

If Bahujan Samaj Party wins the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same n

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34¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/ja_dDA" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Who will win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election?"></iframe>

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Who will win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election?

Who will win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election?

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Will Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Who will win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election?

Markets (3)

Will Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?

Will Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?

Will SP-Congress alliance win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?

Will SP-Congress alliance win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?

Will Bahujan Samaj Party win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?

Will Bahujan Samaj Party win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?

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Will Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election?

Will Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?

Will Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?

Will SP-Congress alliance win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?

Will SP-Congress alliance win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?

Will Bahujan Samaj Party win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?

Will Bahujan Samaj Party win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election?

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