Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T06:00:05.833Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The supplied Polymarket event concerns the 2026 AR-01 House election. The source defines the margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Most listed contracts ask whether the Republican Party candidate wins by a specified margin bracket, such as "35%-40%" or "55% or more" [1]. A separate contract asks whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the election outright, so it is not a margin bracket and should not be read alongside the bracket prices as the same question.

Two wording details matter. First, the source says that "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1]. Second, resolution depends on the official count. The source states that the market "will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official" [1]. Each listed contract shows an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is a listed close time, not a statement that results will be known by then.

Reading the snapshot

The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-16T06:00:05.833Z and retrieved at 2026-10-16T07:42:35.692Z [1]. It shows prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The highest Yes price in the sample is 0.335 for the 35%-40% bracket, with 0.265 for 40%-45% [1]. The 0%-15% and 15%-25% brackets are each near 0.024, and the Democratic win contract shows a Yes price of 0.004 [1].

The coverage record reports 10 markets from one provider event, with all 10 included and no partial sample [1]. Because every saved market is present, the snapshot can be compared within this event. The record does not establish that every possible real-world margin outcome is listed, so no conclusion should be drawn about any omitted bracket. Volume was not supplied as a measure of trading activity, so this snapshot says nothing about liquidity.

What remains uncertain

This evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, and it does not show how many traders hold each view. It contains no current news about the race, no candidate information beyond the contract wording, and no record of how similar markets have performed. The source says the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026," and that results not known definitively by June 30, 2027 would resolve to "Other" [1]. Readers should check the provider page for any later price, status, or rule change, since this snapshot describes only the observation time listed above.

References

1. Polymarket: AR-01 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T06:00:05.833Z.