AR-02 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $11.2K
1
8
AR-02 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $11.2K
1
8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 0-5% at 28%.
Polymarket
- Republican 0-5%28%
- Republican 5-10%23.8%
- Republican 10-15%19.8%
- Democrat 0-5%14.3%
- Republican 20-25%6.3%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $11.2K
Reported volume · provider units
8
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 AR-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event covers the 2026 AR-02 House election and resolves on the margin of victory, defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. The contract text says the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. Each bracket is a separate Yes/No contract, so a reader should compare the exact bracket wording rather than the headline.
The wording has several details that affect interpretation. Only the Democratic and Republican nominees count as options, and "Independent candidates will not represent options for either party" [1]. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the market "will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party" [1]. If a reported margin falls exactly on a bracket boundary, the market "will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1]. Ties and unresolved results have separate rules, including a resolution to "Other" if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T01:57:59.002Z [1]. It is a historical record of quoted prices, not a live view. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is a listed close time, not a resolution date or a confirmed result.
Eight Polymarket contracts are included in the saved sample, and all eight are shown. The highest quoted Yes price is 0.28 for the Republican 0%-5% bracket, and the lowest is 0.0065 for the Republican 25% or more bracket [1]. Other brackets are listed with Yes prices between these values. The Democratic 5% or more bracket is at 0.035 and the Democratic 0%-5% bracket is at 0.128 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they should not be combined across brackets into a single estimate.
What remains uncertain
The sample covers only the saved contracts for this provider event. The source states that the sample "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. No prices are shown for other possible bracket structures, so no conclusion should be drawn about omitted outcomes.
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, how many traders hold each position, or how much volume would be needed to trade at these levels. It also does not confirm the election result, the certified count, or any later candidate changes. The excerpt says the official results will be used, with an option for "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting" [1]. Any reader comparing this market with a contract on another platform should check that the bracket wording, margin definition, and close time match before treating the prices as comparable.
References
- Polymarket: AR-02 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
The AR-02 House Election Margin of Victory contract is a Polymarket event about the 2026 House election in Arkansas's 2nd district [1]. It does not ask which party wins. It asks how large the gap is between the top two candidates. The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, and each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by all valid votes cast in the election [1]. The Democratic and Republican nominees are the options labeled 'Democrat' and 'Republican' in the contract. Independent candidates do not count as either party's option [1]. The contract names candidates for convenience. If a named candidate is replaced as a party's nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves on the replacement nominee [1]. The contract uses margin brackets. If the reported margin falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket [1]. The rules also set out tie-breaking. If two listed candidates tie for the most valid votes, the lowest margin bracket goes to the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. If a tie involves a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, the lowest bracket goes to the listed candidate. If two or more unlisted candidates tie, the market resolves to 'Other' [1]. Resolution depends on the official count. The primary source is the official result published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. If a recount starts before the total is certified, the market stays open until the recount is complete and the vote is official [1]. The election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The listed end time in the provider data, 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z, is a contract field and not an announced results date. Under the rules, the market resolves once the count is official, and if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, it resolves to 'Other' [1].
Historical Context
The supplied background covers general House elections rather than the AR-02 race. The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 6, 2018, as midterm elections during President Donald Trump's first term. Voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across the 50 states to serve in the 116th Congress [2]. This helps explain the general structure of House elections, but it does not describe the 2026 AR-02 contest or its candidates.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how competitive the race is, not who wins. Each market covers a range of margins for either the Republican or Democratic candidate, so it tracks the size of the victory gap between the top two candidates [1]. Because the margin is based on shares of valid votes, the outcome depends on certified totals rather than preliminary tallies [1]. The saved event includes eight markets, and all of them were included in the saved sample. Their titles cover margin bands for each party, including a 5 percent or more band for the Democratic candidate and a 25 percent or more band for the Republican candidate. The contract rules themselves are the authority for how those bands resolve [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does this contract resolve based on which party wins the AR-02 seat?
No. The contract resolves on the margin of victory between the top two candidates, measured as the difference between their percentages of valid votes [1].
Do independent candidates count as options in this contract?
No. Independent candidates do not represent options for either party in the contract [1].
What happens if a named candidate is replaced before election day?
The contract name is updated, and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee of the party [1].
What happens if the result is exactly on a bracket boundary?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
What happens if results are not known by June 30, 2027?
Under the rules, the market resolves to 'Other' if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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